Will Pyongyang Be Held to Account?

In passing a resolution calling for North Korea’s referral to the International Criminal Court, the UN General Assembly on Thursday brought the world its closest yet to holding that country’s leadership accountable for crimes against humanity.

But China and Russia still remain as obstacles to the international effort to prosecute those responsible for human rights abuses, described by a UN report as “without any parallel in the contemporary world.”

The two permanent, veto-wielding members of the UN Security Council are widely expected to block a referral in any eventual and decisive vote on the issue. The 15-member panel holds the ultimate authority to refer Pyongyang to the ICC.

Despite an unprecedented Commission of Inquiry report into the country’s human rights conditions in February and repeated UN votes for action, any hope of prosecuting the Kim Jong-un regime appears to lie in convincing the non-Western permanent members of the council.

“China, Russia and North Korea, again, as it was during the Cold War, are getting much closer to each other in terms of seeing the world, that it should be ruled by an authoritarian leader, that participative democratic institutions simply don’t have any place in their political culture,” Leonid Petrov, a North Korea analyst and professor at Australian National University in Canberra, told The Diplomat.

Russia has recently sought closer ties with the North, following a decline in relations from their peak during the Soviet era. China has long been Pyongyang’s strongest ally, but has displayed impatience with its neighbor in recent years.

Choo Jae-woo, a professor of Chinese foreign policy at Kyung Hee University in Seoul, nevertheless believes China “will never contemplate” supporting action to prosecute the North Korean leadership.

“I don’t think China has ever contemplated any support for the prosecution of the leadership of any countries,” said Choo. “It never publicly supported a recent similar case, Saddam Hussein. It might do if North Korea decides to invade South Korea. Other than that, I don’t see any viable circumstances for China to support any prosecution of the North Korean leader.”

Similarly, Adam Cathcart, editor-in-chief of the website Sino-NK and a lecturer at Leeds University in the UK, sees Chinese cooperation as “very hard to contemplate.”

“Chinese rhetoric about North Korea has been steadily changing for years, but without a clear path forward, I think they will stick with the devil they know,” he said.

Yet not all prominent scholars are so convinced that China’s position is unmovable. Victor Cha, the top advisor on North Korea to former U.S. President George W. Bush, believes that China would be reluctant to be the sole “nay” vote, if Russia decided to support the ICC resolution.

“As much as China threatens to veto, I am not wholly certain Beijing would carry out through on that threat,” he said. “Longitudinal studies of Chinese vetoes in the UN actually show that China does not like to use the veto because they don’t like to be isolated. So, I think if the resolution has strong support among UN members, China will rant and rave but (I’m) not so certain they want to be the only protector of North Korean crimes against humanity in this world, especially when there is clearly no love for this young leader.”

Observers broadly agree that both China and Russia are highly motivated by a fear of regime change in North Korea and how it could increase U.S. influence in the region.

“It would lead to reunification of Korea, obviously under the banner of the Republic of Korea, which is a U.S. ally, and having an expansion of a U.S. ally in the middle of Northeast Asia would completely change the security architecture in the region, which is going to be bad news for Beijing and Moscow,” said Petrov. “Of course they are not going to support anything that potentially destabilizes North Korea or would lead to uncontrolled reunification, particular if reunification becomes the absorption of the North by the South.”

Other motivations are also in play. China has professed a policy of non-interference in other states’ domestic affairs for more than a half-century, one of the “five principles of peaceful coexistence.” It may also be concerned about scrutiny of the fate of North Korean refugees within its own borders.

“If China gives credence to the Commission of Inquiry process and aftermath, they are essentially opening the door to a UN investigation of conditions for North Korean refugees in northeast China and possibly the borders with southeast Asian states,” said Cathcart.

Both Russia and China might also be nervous about any action against the dictatorship that might bring the legitimacy of their own leaders into question.

“There are no free elections, neither in China nor in Russia, the media is censored, the independence of courts is also questioned, even in Russia these days,” said Petrov. “So I think it is quite consistent that Russia and People’s Republic of China are not going to be happy with anything that potentially might reveal the crimes against humanity or (concentration of) power…by one family, one group of people…or one party, as it is the case in China, or oligarchy, as it is the case in Russia.”

Neither South Korea nor its allies on the issue have made much of an effort in public to influence either country’s stance.

Seoul’s Foreign Ministry declined to answer if it was applying pressure or offering incentives to either country. It instead simply noted that the 10 non-permanent members of the Security Council, which include South Korea, had earlier this month requested that the human rights issue be placed on the agenda.

Seoul has had little success in affecting other Chinese policy on North Korea, most notably the issue of Beijing’s continuing repatriation of North Korean refugees. Cathcart sees limited scope for diplomatic maneuver by Seoul on the human rights question.

South Korea itself is also far from united on how to deal with human rights in North Korea. The country’s parliament has been able to ratify any of several bills addressing the human rights question, largely due to liberal resistance.

“As long as the issue is domestically polarized and the North Korean human rights act is not passed in South Korea, it will remain a serious joke to the Chinese,” said Choo.

Russia, meanwhile, is likely to maintain its friendly relations with Pyongyang as it grapples with economic instability sparked by Western sanctions, according to Petrov, a status quo likely to last as long as President Vladimir Putin remains in power.

Ultimately, experts see few potential consequences for either country not cooperating. But even if the ICC referral fails, the UN’s actions up until now could still have more than just symbolic value, according to Petrov.

“Maybe it sounds immoral to use human rights as a bargaining chip, but if the negotiations are done skillfully and correctly and included… in a bigger deal with North Korea, maybe the North Korean regime would consider liberalizing its security inside North Korea by releasing some political prisoners, maybe eliminating the gulag system, maybe letting some unwanted people to leave North Korea instead of keeping them to die,” he said.