What Will Abe Bring to Washington?

On March 23, the White House officially announced that U.S. President Barack Obama will host Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at the White House on April 28. “The two leaders will celebrate the strong global partnership that the United States and Japan have developed during the 70 years since the end of World War II, and underscore the common values and principles that have made the relationship so enduring,” the White House said in a statement.

Abe will be in the U.S. from April 26 to May 3, visiting Boston, Washington D.C., San Francisco and Los Angeles. During a press conference, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga responded to the White House’s invitation, saying the “the official visit to the United States by Prime Minister Abe, we believe, will be significant in showing the robustness of the Japan-U.S. alliance to the world.”

Celebrations of a robust alliance aside, Obama and Abe have a full agenda ahead of them. On the economic front, there will be a heavy focus on finalizing negotiations for the 12-country Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Security issues, such as new legislation proposed by Abe that will enable Japan to play a larger role in the alliance, will also be high on the list. While perhaps not a central component of the official agenda, Obama and Abe will undoubtedly be sensitive to continuing developments in Okinawa. The local Okinawa government is locked in conflict with Tokyo over the relocation of a U.S. military base. Finally, how Abe plays the “history issue” in Washington will be intensely scrutinized by Japan’s neighbors. Washington, meanwhile, will be hoping that historical issues won’t derail the carefully scripted showcase of the strong alliance later this month.

TPP concessions are one of the omiyage (gifts) that Abe could bring to the White House. Both the U.S. and Japan have strong incentives to reach a deal as soon as possible. The TPP is a key pillar of the U.S.’s “rebalance” to Asia, while being a founding member of the TPP will allow Japan to play a role in setting the standard for the new international economic order. At a March 24 meeting with Prime Minister John Key, Abe pledged to further cooperation with New Zealand to wrap up the TPP negotiations soon -- this can be taken as a positive sign that talks are moving in the right direction.

Another omiyage is Japan’s new security legislation. Abe recommitted to legislation that will enable Japan to make a “seamless” response to any scenario – ranging from gray-zone incidents to cases of collective self-defense – when he spoke at the National Defense Academy of Japan’s graduation ceremony recently. The new legislation will also seek to expand peacetime cooperation as well as background logistic support for U.S. and other military forces engaged to ensure the peace and security of Japan. With the ruling parties’ announcement of their plan on March 20, negotiations for the guidelines for bilateral cooperation with the U.S. will also enter its final stages.

Meetings between the two states’ foreign and defense ministers, “two-plus-two” talks, will precede the leaders’ talks. Japanese and U.S. government sources told The Japan News that a new version of the Guidelines for Japan-U.S. Defense Cooperation, based on Japan’s newly reinterpreted right to collective self-defense, will be finalized then. The last time the Defense Guidelines were updated was in 1997 – a significantly different world from the one we live in today. The revisions will be welcomed by the U.S., which has long encouraged Japan to increase its role in maintaining stability in the volatile region.

But there’s also not-so-welcome news on the alliance front. In Okinawa, where the central government is trying to relocate the U.S. Marine Corps’ Futenma Air Station to the Henoko district in Nago, brewing discontent could sour U.S.-Japan relations if not handled carefully. Okinawa Governor Takeshi Onaga won the gubernatorial election last December on a strongly anti-relocation platform. Okinawans do not want to relocate the base within Okinawa, because they believe that the burden of hosting U.S. forces should be spread more evenly within Japan – or that it should at least be reduced in Okinawa. This conflict between Onaga and the central government is likely to go to court if Onaga revokes the local government’s approval to crush reefs as part of the survey work, as he has threatened to if the construction work does not stop by March 30.

The U.S. supports the central government’s determination to continue construction work despite Onaga’s obstructionism. Marie Harf, deputy spokesperson at the U.S. State Department, emphasized that relocation is a goal that the U.S. and Japanese governments have been working toward, with a significant investment of time and effort, and that it is a critical step to realign U.S. forces stationed in Okinawa. However, the issue will remain a thorn in the relationship for the foreseeable future: 500 demonstrators converged on Nago Police Station to protest the U.S. military’s brief detainment of two Japanese anti-relocation activists for trespassing at the gate of Camp Schwab on February 22. Nago Mayor Susumu Inamine stated at the time, “Let’s raise our voices and present our demand to both the U.S. and the Japanese governments.” On March 21, 3,900 demonstrators converged in Nago in what The Japan Times has described as “one of the largest shows of Okinawan anger to date.” This is one of the issues that U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter is expected to discuss when he makes his first visit to Japan next month.

Finally, there’s the issue of history. During his April trip to Washington D.C., Abe will become the first Japanese prime minister to address a joint session of Congress. On that occasion, he is expected to review Japan’s development as a peaceful nation since the end of World War II and to announce his commitment to Japan’s role as a “proactive” contributor to world peace, with an emphasis on future-oriented diplomacy. Brad Glosserman, executive director of Pacific Forum-CSIS, has said that it is critical for Abe to maintain a global perspective as he gives this speech – his speech cannot be addressed to just the U.S., but must anticipate the way it will be received by countries of the Asia-Pacific and the world. Abe must avoid giving off the impression that he is only accommodating the U.S. worldview while not giving that same consideration to other countries that Japan also victimized, such as China and South Korea. China and South Korea, as well as U.S. and other observers in the Asia-Pacific, will intensely scrutinize Abe’s speech for any hints as to what Abe will say in his August 15 statement marking the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II.

TPP concessions and new security legislation are two issues to keep an eye on that could make for a very positive summit between Obama and Abe, highlighting (the organizers hope) the strength of the bilateral relationship. However, outside Tokyo, all is not well – even from a U.S. perspective. It is simply too early to tell whether the situation in Okinawa will escalate and what twists and turns Japan’s beleaguered relationship with China and South Korea will take. While neither of these issues was mentioned in the official statement, these are the two developments to watch, as they will provide the frame and optics that contextualize how the summit will be remembered years down the road.