April By-Elections a Big Test for South Korea’s NPAD

It’s election season in South Korea – by-elections will be held on April 29 in four constituencies located in Seoul, Gyeonggi, Gwangju and Incheon. How South Korea’s liberal party, the New Politics Alliance for Democracy (NPAD) approaches them will offer a glimpse into the future of liberal party politics and liberal politics more generally. And the performance of recently elected NPAD chairman Moon Jae-in will be very instructive and, according to some, could be make or break politically.

For this election, the most important of the four cities is Gwangju (the Seogu constituency, to be precise). Gwangju is a special metropolitan city in South Jeolla Province. It is home to former president and heralded opposition politician Kim Dae-jung and thus a long-time stronghold for South Korea’s many liberal parties. Presidential candidates are guaranteed strong support from South (and North) Jeolla.

Thus, when the conservative Saenuri Party candidate Lee Jung-hyun won in Suncheon-Gokseong (a constituency in Gwangju) in a by-election last year it was considered quite a significant event – indeed, it was the first time in more than 20 years that a conservative had won an election in South Jeolla. For some voters, the liberal party was simply no longer an appealing choice. As one resident said in a JTBC interview: “It is no longer the time of democratic struggle and Kim Dae-jung. Regional economies have to be prioritized now.”

This year, Moon’s NPAD is doing just that: prioritizing the economy, even if it means blurring the differences between the ruling Saenuri’s position and its own. As The Korea Herald writes, “The main opposition New Politics Alliance for Democracy (NPAD)… has shifted its policy from distribution of wealth to increasing wealth, seemingly following the lead of the ruling Saenuri Party.” Tellingly, the banner used in the conference held to announce those selected to run in the April 29 by-elections read: “We will secure the citizens’ wallets: NPAD, the party capable of managing the economy.”

Framing the party’s “platform” in this way is as much a political move as it is a genuine articulation of the party’s policy position. How, exactly, NPAD would raise income levels is unclear.

What is clear is that Gwangju is vital to the future success of NPAD – and, by extension, Moon’s presidential aspirations. JTBC’s political analysts portray the Gwangju race as an all or nothing situation. If Moon can ensure support for NPAD (and a victory) then he and the party are in good shape going forward. If he can’t, then, like a house of cards, everything could well come crumbling down.

More worrisome than a conservative victory, according to analysts, is the possibility of leftist politicians in the Jeolla region forming a new party. That isn’t an issue of concern for Moon now, but it will be for the general election next year. For now, the independent candidate for the Seogu constituency in Gwangju – a serious contender, evidently – is a major concern.

The by-elections in April only involve four seats, but they represent Moon Jae-in’s first real test as party chair. They are also an opportunity for the party, under Moon’s leadership, to (re)brand itself following the dissolution of the hard-left United Progressive Party (UPP) late last year. Will Moon be a new, pragmatic party leader? Will the NPAD maintain its ranks and start building the political clout and capital needed to support a presidential candidate in 2017? The events leading up to the election will provide some initial answers.