US-Japan Relations Aren’t Out of the Woods Yet

On February 10, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe arrived in Washington, DC.  Following the official bilateral meeting with President Donald Trump, the two leaders flew together in Air Force One to spend the weekend in Florida at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort, where they enjoyed golf.

This meeting was not the first between the two men. Abe was the first foreign leader to meet Trump on November 18, shortly after his election to become the 45th president of the United States. While the November meeting was reported to have gone well, much of what transpired was left to speculation, though both sides emphasized that their conversation left mutually favorable impressions. The White House’s recent red-carpet treatment of Abe confirmed that the two leaders indeed have positive views of each other, and are willing to continue to develop their relationship.

Prior to the meeting, there was concern in Japan about how Trump would behave. Since the inauguration, Trump so far has not shown any sign of toning down some of his most colorful rhetoric on immigration, his opponents, and the media. The unpredictability that he was known for during the campaign even spilled over into his conversations with foreign leaders. Such concerns grew particularly after Trump’s infamous phone conversation with Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, when the U.S. president abruptly ended what was planned to be a one-hour call after a mere 25 minutes. Even though Secretary of Defense James Mattis reassured Japan that there would be no drastic changes in Washington’s position toward the U.S.-Japan alliance, including the U.S. commitment to the defense of Japan and the areas that fall under its administrative control (read: the Senkaku Islands), concerns persisted that such views might not be shared by Trump and his closest advisors in the White House. Trump criticizing Japan as “a currency manipulator” in a tweet shortly before the meeting exacerbated these worries.

However, Trump’s behavior in his meeting with Abe was very different. Despite the concerns of some, Trump was very careful in his statement on U.S.-Japan relations. In the joint press conference, he did not lash out on Japan’s trade practices, or argue that Japan should bear the full cost of stationing U.S. troops in Japan. Rather, he reiterated his predecessors’ description of the U.S.-Japan alliance as “the cornerstone” of peace and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region. He praised the “great” relationship between the two countries. The United States even agreed to reconfirm its commitment to help Japan defend the Senkaku Islands at the very beginning of the Joint Statement issued after the official bilateral meeting, while potentially more thorny issues in economic relations were punted to further discussion to be held between Vice President Mike Pence and Vice Prime Minister-cum-Finance Minister Taro Aso.

What emerged from the Trump-Abe meeting is the structure of the future relationship: the two leaders focus on building an already positive personal relationship while detailed policy discussions are delegated to the cabinet level. The Foreign and Defense Ministries of Japan and U.S. Departments of State and Defense are already tasked to discuss further ways to enhance the defense relationship, with an eye toward holding a “2-plus-2” meeting in the not too distant future. As mentioned above, a “comprehensive” economic dialogue is to be held between Pence and Aso, with input from other cabinet ministers as necessary. This is good news for Japan – Pence, Mattis, and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson offer much greater predictability for Japanese observers. Compared with other U.S. allies, which have yet to figure out the institutional framework in which their bilateral relationship with Washington will be handled, Japan finds itself in a position where it may not have to watch out for every single tweet Trump spits out.

However, Japan also has some concerns. The departure of National Security Advisor Michael Flynn will clearly affect the Japanese government’s ability to have direct access to the president’s closest advisors. Despite his mixed reputation in the U.S. defense community, Flynn was critical in facilitating the Japanese government’s communication with Trump from its earliest days. Japan will need to identify another individual as a primary communication channel.

Moreover, Japan may find it challenging to figure out how to push back on the Trump administration’s demands in one policy area without worrying about the potential impact of such resistance on other aspect of its relationship with Washington. If Trump continues his transactional approach to U.S. relations with other countries, the tense negotiations on economic issues between Pence and Aso could impact the conversation on defense issues between Mattis and Defense Minister Inada, or consultation on other foreign policy issues between Tillerson and Foreign Minister Kishida. While the best scenario for Tokyo is to leverage a good personal relationship between Abe and Trump to prevent such spillover, they will never know for sure.

Finally, Japan will have to walk the fine line between sustaining a positive relationship and open line of communication with Trump and being cautious of the international perception of Abe as a leader who is too close to Trump. Trump’s early policy decisions have seemed to contradict some of the international principles that Abe emphasizes in Japan’s foreign policy. With the world watching anti-Trump demonstrations in and outside of the United States on a regular basis, there can be a reputational cost for Abe in being perceived as too close to Trump, unless Abe can leverage his personal relationship with Trump to change the president’s views to a more moderate foreign policy outlook. While the two leaders certainly got off to a very good start, the relationship with Trump may turn out to be a “high-risk, high-reward” scenario for Abe.