Why Duterte Should Restart the Peace Talks with Communists

Despite the initial gains in the peace negotiations between the Philippine government and the communist-led National Democratic Front in the past six months, President Rodrigo Duterte has ordered the cancellation of the peace talks after rebels ended their unilateral ceasefire in February.

Duterte’s announcement, which was probably done without consulting the government peace panel, disappointed many peace advocates who have been actively monitoring the positive developments in the peace process. Disappointment turned into alarm after Duterte instructed the military to launch an all-out war campaign against the rebels. In a matter of days, peace talk was replaced with war talk. 

Perhaps some would think that the all-out war policy is an affirmation of Duterte’s brand of politics. It appears to complement the war on drugs, the war against illegal gambling, and other aggressive anti-crime campaigns.

But the decision to resume all-out war against the rebels could undermine Duterte’s government; in particular it threatens to sever the informal alliance between Duterte and the mainstream Left movement. 

The Left has been openly denouncing the human rights abuses committed by state forces. It has also criticized Duterte’s “pro-capitalist” economic policies. Duterte describes himself as the country’s first socialist-leaning president. 

What unites the Left and Duterte is the recognition that the best approach to ending the long-running communist revolution in the country involves addressing the social and economic causes of the conflict. This can be done through a negotiated political settlement. Thus, the resumption of the peace talks last August. 

Many analysts believe that Duterte has the best chance of ending the communist rebellion through the peace talks because he enjoyed good relations with NDF leaders when he was still mayor of Davao City. Further, one of his former college professors is the leader of the country’s communist movement. 

But the scrapping of the peace talks has derailed the chances of peacefully resolving the insurgency. This is quite frustrating for many who expected the signing of a final peace agreement in the next two years.

If peace talks are already canceled, the Left could also break all ties with Duterte and join other opposition forces. 

In addition, there is growing public outrage against the campaign of drug-related extrajudicial killings touted by Duterte, while his populism seems inadequate to counter the real impact of continuing poverty and worsening deprivation. Can Duterte survive the political backlash without the Left on his side? He threatens to declare martial law if people will resist him but can he really do this if various political groups from the Left to the Right will unite against him? Perhaps he overestimates his popularity in the grassroots or he has already decided to give his full confidence to the police and military in suppressing dissent. 

Interestingly, Duterte didn’t completely end his links with the Left. His three NDF-nominated Cabinet members are still in the government. His peace advisers have assured the public that there is still hope in rescuing the peace process. Some Palace officials hinted that Duterte could still change his mind about ending the peace talks. 

This is crucial moment, therefore, for peace advocates to broaden the clamor for peace. This is also an opportunity for both the government and NDF peace panels to convince the public that the peace talks will produce concrete results. 

As for Duterte, he should remember his election pledge of signing a successful peace agreement with all armed groups in the country. If this is to be his legacy, aside from pursuing federalism and ending the drug menace, he should reconsider his earlier decision to end the peace talks. 

The peace process offers a platform for Duterte to launch his ambitious political and economic reforms aimed at subverting the rule of oligarchs while empowering the poor in the provinces. It is also a better alternative for eliminating the scourge of illegal drugs by providing livelihood and services in poverty-stricken communities. 

Duterte talking peace with rebels and working with various sectors to address the roots of the armed conflict and even drug dependency is preferable to a war-mongering president presiding over a bloody war on drugs and looking for the next conflict.