What Moon Jae-in Has To Build On – And Discard

South Korea’s new president, Moon Jae-in, pitched into power on May 10 after a snap election precipitated by the impeachment of his now-jailed predecessor Park Geun-hye, has just passed his first 100 days in office. Rather than an instant scorecard, let us take the longer view. What legacies did Moon’s predecessors leave, for good or ill? And what tasks confront him now?

Korea is an old nation but a young Republic, founded in 1948 after three years of U.S. military rule (USAMGIK) following the peninsula’s partition. Moon is the Republic of Korea’s (ROK) 12th president in 69 years – or effectively the 10th, excluding the two swiftly overthrown by military coups.

As that implies, this history falls into two distinct periods: dictatorship and democracy. For its first four decades the ROK had just three presidents: Syngman Rhee (1948-1960), Park Chung-hee (1961-79) and Chun Doo-hwan (1980-88). Rhee was elected but turned dictatorial, while Park and Chun were generals who seized power before winning carefully controlled “elections.”

Most clung to power. Rhee was ousted by a student uprising, while Park was shot at dinner by his own security chief. Only Chun got the message. In 1987, as street protests grew, his fellow coup-maker Roh Moo-hyun persuaded him to concede democracy rather than crack down.

Roh went on to win that year’s presidential election, as the two dissident leaders Kim Young-sam and Kim Dae-jung squabbled. To prevent abuses in the future, the new Sixth Republic’s Constitution imposed strict limits: a single five-year term, with no possibility of extension.

Hence, after three presidents in the first 40 years, the next 30 have seen seven. The rival Kims each got their turn, Young-sam in 1993 and Dae-jung in 1998. The pendulum has swung between right and left with neat regularity. Two conservatives, Roh and Kim Young-sam, were followed by a pair of liberals, Kim Dae-jung and Roh Moo-hyun (2003); then two more rightists, Lee Myung-bak (2008) and Park Chung-hee’s daughter Park Geun-hye (2013). South Korea was thus due to swing left again, only Park’s impeachment in March brought this forward by several months.

What has this varied cast achieved? Many South Koreans find no virtue in any dictators, but let us be fair. Two of Rhee’s policies – a radical land reform and the start of mass education – were vital for the growth that followed. For that stellar if hard-won take-off itself, credit has to go to Park Chung-hee: Korea’s Bismarck, whatever you think of the man and his methods.

Chun Doo-hwan, though unforgivable for the May 1980’s Gwangju massacre, took economics lessons and eased state control. His successor Roh Tae-woo tends to be no less reviled. Both were coup-makers who also amassed huge slush funds. Later they were tried and jailed on both counts, though quickly pardoned. Yet Roh oversaw a peaceful democratic transition, while his Nordpolitik opened ties with the USSR and China while reaching out to North Korea. These are no small achievements. History will judge him as a more successful Gorbachev, but most South Koreans scorn him as mul (“water,” like Lady Thatcher’s sneering use of “wets”).

And the two Kims? Young-sam led South Korea into the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) – but also into financial crisis and near-sovereign default. His old foe Kim Dae-jung, elected by a whisker in his fourth attempt, had to clean up Young-sam’s mess. A true visionary, Dae-jung is best known for his ‘Sunshine Policy’ toward North Korea, which won him the Nobel Peace Prize. But his more lasting achievement was pushing through, against opposition from fellow-progressives, the painful restructuring needed for the ROK economy to recover.

Since then real vision has been scarce in Seoul. The liberal Roh Moo-hyun and his right-wing successors Lee and Park were all epigones. None steered a clear or consistent path, although Lee’s economic stewardship (including a major role in the new G20) was mostly creditable. All left office under a cloud, with corruption scandals bogging down both Roh’s and Lee’s circles.

What then does Moon Jae-in inherit from these predecessors? Robust democracy is a big plus, but it needs improving. Moon has promised a referendum on constitutional reform next June. One idea is to allow two shorter four-year presidential terms, like in the United States. Others want a stronger parliament; too often the National Assembly is impotent, obstructive or gridlocked.

Major institutions also need overhaul. Moon is clipping the army’s wings: his top two military appointees are from the air force and navy. The overweening prosecution service is reportedly resisting his efforts to clean it up. Tougher still will be reforming the National Intelligence Service (NIS), whose scandal-ridden recent past includes covertly organizing anti-Moon online propaganda in 2012, when Park Geun-hye narrowly defeated him.

All this is hard, but the economy is harder. The erstwhile growth star is a laggard now: ticking along at around 3 percent annual GDP growth, well below the Asian average. Last year even North Korea grew faster, according to Seoul’s own central bank (albeit from a very low base).

Like his predecessors, Moon berates the chaebol (big conglomerates) and vows to help SMEs, which are crucial to his key goal of reducing unemployment. Indeed, his “J-nomics” concept posits job creation as the dynamo for growth, rather than its outcome. Critics dismiss that as sleight of hand to square the circle, fearing that public money may be spent to little result.

Over all this looms the shadow of North Korea. As Roh Moo-hyun’s ex-chief of staff, Moon hoped to reboot sunshine after a decade of near-night. But to the chagrin of Seoul’s doves, Kim Jong-un relishes the dark side. Spurning all Moon’s overtures, Kim would rather trade threats with the equally loud-mouthed newish occupant of the White House – leaving Moon no choice but to stress defense and security (witness his tergiversations over THAAD).

How all this will play out is far from clear. As of mid-August, Moon has an impressive 84 percent approval rating, with even conservatives welcoming his energy and openness. That figure will decline, and Moon’s hopes of bringing peace to the peninsula may be dashed. But if by 2022 he can burnish the ROK’s democracy and revitalise its economy, that will be success enough.