Decision Time Approaches New Caledonia

Early in December, French Prime Minister Édouard Philippe visited the French Pacific territory of New Caledonia. The four-day visit was made in order to consolidate agreements reached in Paris in November concerning the forthcoming referendum on New Caledonia’s independence.

The Paris meetings were designed to determine the size of the electorate and the eligibility of voters, the locations of polling stations, and the presence of United Nations election observers to oversee the process. The eligibility of voters had previously been a significant sticking point between the loyalist (pro-France) and independence camps.

The majority of the ethnically European inhabitants in New Caledonia are descendants from convicts that the French transported to the islands, and although mostly loyalist, their participation is welcomed by the indigenous Kanak population, who are predominantly pro-independence. However, there remain a number of other Europeans in New Caledonia – public servants, French military personnel, short-term contractors – without a long term presence, whose participation in the referendum is questioned by groups supporting independence.

While the electoral roll for New Caledonia’s domestic elections only requires residency in the islands since 1998, it was decided that for the referendum a longer period of continuous residency since 1994 is to be required for eligibility. This is due to a significant number of French civil servants, military personnel, and transient short-term residents and contractors being present within the territory, but not deemed to be locally invested enough to determine New Caledonia’s future.

While this significant issue seem to have been resolved, the date of the election is yet to be established. The Nouméa Accord of 1998 devolved a number of powers from France to New Caledonia, allowing the territory some autonomy of its own affairs, with Paris maintaining control over the military, foreign policy, immigration, police, and currency. The accord also stipulated that a referendum needed to be held by November 2018. Yet local politicians have yet to set a date ahead of the quickly approaching deadline.

Philippe’s visit was designed to press local politicians to quickly establish a date when the poll can be held. The prime minister indicated during his visit that if a date cannot be set by March, then the French state will step in and take control of the process. This would be both a major embarrassment to local politicians, who do not wish to see their competence  questioned, but also something Paris may be reluctant to do for risk of seeming too heavy-handed with the territory during a period where such actions could sway public sentiment.

The other major issue Philippe’s trip sought to expedite was the actual referendum question. Early in the year President Emmanuel Macron stated that the question should as simple and direct as possible – “Do you want New Caledonia to accede to full sovereignty?” – and the implication of this should be explained by local political parties. However, many local parties still maintain a number of differences about whether they would simply like a greater level of autonomy – hoping to maintain some relationship with France – or completely cut ties. Yet a series of more nuanced questions around legal and administrative divisions may end up confusing the electorate and invalidating the results.

How the referendum question is framed could also affect voter turnout and the credibility of the poll if turnout is low. Last year’s French presidential election produced a turnout in New Caledonia of under 50 percent, and although turnouts are usually higher for local elections (particularly among Kanaks), registering and mobilizing voters in the coming months is essential for the referendum to be deemed legitimate. The threat of boycotts from smaller, more radical, Kanak political parties who are suspicious of the referendum process also has the potential to undermine the vote.

Philippe’s visit to New Caledonia is an indication that Paris has realized that time is quickly running out to resolve these outstanding issues. Macron is scheduled to visit the islands in May, and Paris will be hoping that the referendum is on track by then. That it has been 19 years since the Nouméa Accords were signed reflects badly on the organizational skills of both local New Caledonian politicians and the French state. It will be seriously embarrassing for all actors involved should the referendum not run smoothly, especially as a bumbling process may foster heightened inter-community tensions leading up to, during, and after the referendum.