Abe’s Quest for a Foreign Policy Legacy

On February 7, Russia began a military exercise on the disputed Kuril Islands, also claimed by Japan (which calls them the Northern Territories). The Japanese government lodged a formal protest with the Russian government. Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono spoke about the incident in the Japanese Diet, stating that the Japanese government finds these military drills “regrettable,” as they “will result in strengthening Russia’s military presence on these four islands.”

It’s hard not to interpret Russia’s latest decision to move ahead with the military drills as an insult to Japan. The two governments had just met on February 6 to discuss joint economic activities on the disputed islands. On the same day as the drills began, February 7, Abe reaffirmed his pledge to end the sovereignty dispute by continuing to engage Putin at a rally commemorating “Northern Territories Day.” Russia’s decision also raises the question of whether Abe may have been too optimistic in his assessment of the possibility of reaching a breakthrough with Russia on this issue.

Prior to ascending to the premiership the first time around in 2006, Abe had already discussed at length his belief that Japan should graduate from a “postwar regime” in his book Utsukushii Kuni-he (Toward a Beautiful Country). Since Abe returned to power in December 2012, he has followed this conviction in the most earnest terms. In particular, the resolution of Japan’s wartime legacies has been one of his foreign policy priorities.

In economic policy, Abe launched a series of initiatives that seek to significantly alter the structure of the Japanese economy, to improve gender balance in the workplace, and to provide better infrastructure for working mothers. These initiatives are all ultimately part of his efforts to shift the structure of a Japanese economy that for decades has pinned its growth on long-working hours, supported by stay-at-home mothers. On the foreign policy front, Abe’s efforts have focused on enhancing Japan’s capability to defend its own territory on the one hand, while seeking a more robust Japanese presence on the international stage on the other.  In this context, Abe has paid a great deal of attention to the diplomatic tension that Japan still has with its neighbors, originating from World War II. These issues can hamstring Japan’s ability to play a greater role on the world stage. Tokyo’s ongoing tensions with Moscow over the sovereignty of the Kuril Islands/Northern Territories — and the fact that, with the exception of North Korea, Russia is the only country with which Japan has not signed a peace treaty — loom very large. 

Furthermore, normalization of Tokyo’s relationship with Moscow is a major foreign policy challenge that, if achieved, will allow Abe to leave his mark on Japanese postwar history.  Starting from the attempts made by then-Prime Minister Ichiro Hatoyama (father of former Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama), several of Abe’s predecessors — Ryuichiro Hashimoto in the 1990s and Yoshiro Mori in the early 2000s, for example — have made serious attempts to reach a diplomatic breakthrough with Russia on the Northern Territories issue. The resolution of that dispute is a nonnegotiable condition for Tokyo to begin discussing normalization of the relationship. Should Abe be able to leverage his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin to first resolve the Northern Territories issue and then pave the way for Japan-Russia normalization, this would no doubt be his biggest foreign policy achievement.

As such, Abe has spent a great deal of energy in his attempt to reach a diplomatic breakthrough on this issue with Russia. In particular, he has invested his energy into developing a close personal relationship with Putin. Since 2012, the two leaders have met over 20 times, and in 2016, Abe even hosted Putin in his hometown, Nagato. At that time, despite a great deal of domestic skepticism, Abe and Putin agreed to allow the two countries to move forward with discussions of the joint economic development of the four disputed islands ahead of negotiations regarding the return of the Northern Territories to Japan. 

However, even prior to the 2016 agreement, Russia has steadily taken steps to dampen Japan’s hopes for negotiation over (and the eventual return of) the four islands. Most notably, Russia has expanded its military presence on the islands. In 2014, it conducted a military exercise despite Japan’s protests. It also has taken steps to strengthen its military footprint on them, including the deployment of anti-ship missiles and upgrades of the existing military assets. In September 2017, Russia even held joint military exercise with China in the waters near the Northern Territories. Russia also designated Shikotan Island as its own special economic zone in August 2017, which Japan considers as contradicting the bilateral agreement on joint economic activities in the area.

Despite these steps taken by Russia, Abe seems determined to stay the course on his government’s position vis-à-vis Russia. For instance, despite Russia starting its military drill on the Northern Territories on February 7, Abe’s plan to visit Russia in May 2018 remains unchanged. But the recent developments on the Northern Territories may force Abe and his advisors to confront the unyielding reality that surrounds one of few remaining legacies of Japan’s defeat in World War II.