What to Expect After China’s Historic Two Sessions?

From a historical perspective, 2018’s “Two Sessions” – the annual plenary sessions of the National People’s Congress (NPC) and the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) – have much more far-reaching significance to the country and its people than the Chinese Communist Party (CCP)’s 19th National Congress, held last October. The events of March will take their place alongside other pivotal and destructive points in China’s history – including the anti-rightist campaign of the 1950s, the Cultural Revolution from 1966-1976, and the Tiananmen crackdown in 1989.

This year’s sessions abolished the two-term limit for the presidency and the vice presidency set by Deng Xiaoping in China’s constitution in 1982, established an all-powerful, uncheckable anti-corruption body – the National Supervisory Commission (NSC) – broke the unwritten mandatory retirement age rule by appointing Wang Qishan as vice president, added the CCP’s leadership into Chapter 1, Article 1 of the state constitution, and – most importantly – confirmed to the world that Xi Jinping has truly surpassed Deng Xiaoping and become the most powerful leader since Mao Zedong in the history of the People’s Republic of China.

Xi, who currently holds the positions of president, CCP general secretary, and chairman of the the Central Military Commission, is in control of the state, the Party, and the army. He can remain in these positions as long as he desires.

This year’s “Two Sessions” have put China back more than 30 years. How will this “New Era” led by “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism With Chinese Characteristics” impact China’s  institutions, individuals, and foreign relations?

Farewell to Separation of Party and Government

The CCP added “Party, government, military, civilian, and academic, east, west, south, north, and center, the party leads everything” – a phrase coined by Mao Zedong during the Cultural Revolution period – into the Party Constitution during the 19th Party Congress last year.

On March 20, in his closing speech for the “Two Sessions,” Xi quoted this phrase again.

“Only socialism can save China,” he added. “We must develop socialist democracy and uphold the leadership of the Party with greater intensity and more practical measures."

The most practical measure of all is that the sessions officially called an end to the separation of Party and government – a notion put forward by Deng Xiaoping when he assumed political power after Mao’s death in the late 1970s.

The CCP had revealed this intention earlier. In November 2017, Wang Qishan published a lengthy article through China’s state newspaper, the People’s Daily, in which he stated problems with the idea of separation of Party and government and claimed this separation undermined the leadership of the CCP.

The “Two Sessions” finally materialized this intention through overhauling many government agencies. In the name of making the government “better-structured, more efficient, and service-oriented,” a series of government bodies were removed, while the Party was empowered.

For example, the NSC is supposed to be a government organ, but it actually shares space and personnel with the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) – the highest internal-control institution of the CCP. And the NSC’s newly appointed director, Yang Xiaodu, is currently serving as a deputy director of the CCDI, too – a connection that can guarantee the CCDI’s effective leadership over the new NSC, and by extension the Party’s absolute leadership over the state.

The CCP Publicity Department –  the Party’s propaganda and censorship machine -- has been granted more power through this overhaul as well. By absorbing the National Press and Publication Administration and reserving its name, this CCP body -- which traditionally worked behind the scenes – has started to function as a government organ and directly oversee China’s media and movie industry.

There is a widespread sarcastic comment circulating on Chinese social media now, which says, “In order to intensify the CCP’s leadership over the government’s administration, the CCP Central Committee decides to absorb the State Council [essentially China’s cabinet] but reserve the State Council’s name.”

This bitter satire regarding the recent announcements perfectly encapsulates the current status of China’s shrinking government.

So far, the massive overhaul has just started at the central government level. In the near future, more and more CCP organs at the provincial and local level will follow suit to function as the government’s organs, and the phenomenon of “one institution bearing two names” will be common again. The Party’s leaders at all levels will also gradually displace non-Party leaders and gain full control of most public and semi-public sectors.

Rising Tension and Anxiety at Home and Abroad

China’s former presidents Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao were quite sensitive to criticism from the international community. Jiang, in particular, was famous for taking special care of his personal image in Western media. For example, Jiang frequently boasted about his interview with Mike Wallace, the prominent American journalist, for the U.S. television program 60 Minutes.

Jiang and Hu’s sensitivities to international criticism more or less checked their behavior and led them to refrain them from issuing policies that could be regarded as too aggressive. As Jiang’s favorite folksy phrase –  “keep silent and make a fortune” – and Hu’s famous slogan “buzheteng” (avoid self-inflicted setbacks; don’t rock the boat; don’t make trouble) displayed, both Jiang and Hu preferred to run the country without making too much noise in public.

Xi is a completely different kind of leader.

This year’s “Two Sessions” showed that Xi doesn’t care much about public opinion – from home or abroad.

Xi doesn’t mind being referred to as “dictator” or “emperor” by foreign media, nor does he have any interest in talking to the foreign press directly. Meanwhile, he demanded that Chinese media should “have the Party as their family name,” and his censors have been clamping down on the free flow of information with an iron fist.

Xi is ambitious. With his slogan of “fenfayouwei” (striving for achievement), he appears to enjoy micromanaging domestic and foreign affairs and giving speeches to national and international audiences. As Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi put it, “Chairman Xi Jinping, as the chief architect of China’s major-country diplomacy, has been personally involved in planning and conducting ‘brilliant’ head-of-state diplomacy.”

However, Xi’s indifference to public opinion and his enthusiasm for domestic and international achievements will lead China down a dangerous road. The widespread expectation that China is going back to a Mao-style government will further cause tension and anxiety at home and abroad.

In terms of international relations, this year’s “Two Sessions” appeared to be a wake-up call to the international community. A large number of Western China watchers have switched from sympathetic or moderate views of China’s rise to the opposite. Many have publicly criticized the CCP and Xi for arbitrarily amending China’s constitution.

For example, Francis Fukuyama, a political scientist at Stanford University, has been long regarded by Chinese national media as a pro-China expert. He had famously argued that China’s “autonomy is good” as long as China has “a good emperor.” In 2015, Xi and Wang met with Fukuyama separately and discussed China’s future. But as soon as the CCP announced the scrapping of the presidential term limit, Fukuyama publicly criticized Xi for jeopardizing China’s future and referred to Xi as a “bad emperor.”

Another moderate China hand, Kevin Rudd, Australia’s 26th prime minister, concluded recently during a speech at West Point in the United States:

We should never forget that the Chinese Communist Party is a revolutionary party which makes no bones about the fact that it obtained power through the barrel of a gun, and will sustain power through the barrel of a gun if necessary. We should not have any dewy-eyed sentimentality about any of this. It’s a simple fact that this is what the Chinese system is like.

These remarks demonstrate how Xi’s latest behavior has lost China some of the few friendly voices it had in the international community. The policies of many Western countries toward China may turn increasingly defensive or hostile in the near future. And those countries that have chosen to bandwagon with China out of fear or financial interest will also hedge against China’s rise in a more active way.

To many Chinese citizens, this year’s “Two Sessions” were also alarming.

Given that “voting with one's feet” is the only rational option for ordinary people in today’s China, many Chinese middle-class citizens and elites have already begun the immigration process. Baidu Index (the Chinese equivalent of Google Trend) showed that at 5 p.m. on February 25 – hours after the CCP released its proposal eliminating presidential term limits –  Chinese internet searches on “immigration” reached an unusual peak. Now, presumably thanks to China’s censors, Baidu Index no longer provides data on the keyword “immigration.”

But most Chinese citizens, who don’t have the opportunity or means to leave the country, will very soon have to make a choice about their lives –  to participate in the New Era or not.

For those who don’t want to participate in the New Era, or those who don’t want to compliment Xi’s achievements against their will, staying away from politics will become increasingly challenging as Xi’s administration has been and still is launching campaign after campaign across the country. The only safe choice for them now seems to be remaining silent.

Thus, people outside of China will soon only hear voices of support, complimenting and cheering the New Era from inside China. That’s simply because only these sentiments are safe to sound in public. As for the voices of tension and anxiety, like lava in a dormant volcano, they will keep rumbling silently underground until the volcano erupts.