The Battle for Busan

All eyes are on Busan, South Korea’s second largest city, for the upcoming local elections on June 13. Busan is seen as one of the country’s main hot spots, where the two largest political parties are expected to be battling fiercely for the win.

For the Liberty Korea Party (LKP), South Korea’s main conservative opposition party, Busan is important in gauging changes in public attitudes toward the party after Park Geun-hye, the former conservative president who was impeached last year.

In each of the six local elections since June 1995, the Democratic Party (in its various forms) has been defeated in Busan. This is why Busan is considered to be “home turf” for conservative parties. Conservative party candidates have also dominated all 16 district head positions in Busan. This shows how strong traditional support for conservative parties is in the hearts of the public in Busan.

However, five out of the 18 seats representing Busan in the last general election were passed over to the Democratic Party, signaling a change. The LKP cannot afford to cede further ground in its traditional stronghold.

For the Democratic Party, meanwhile, notching victories in Busan would be a critical symbolic win.

As mentioned above, public sentiment in the city has shown signs of change. If the Democratic Party can encourage these changes, it could lead to bigger gains on the national level. Victory in Busan could be useful for the Democratic Party in terms of intensifying public support as well as laying the groundwork for implementing upcoming government policies. Not to mention that South Korean President Moon Jae-in hails from Busan.

For this important mayoral contest, the Liberty Korea Party is betting on Seo Byung-soo, the current mayor of Busan, while the Democratic Party has put forward Oh Geo-don, the former minister of oceans and fisheries. This will be the second sparring match for Seo and Oh. After a neck-and-neck competition in the 2014 local election, Seo came out on top by garnering 50.6 percent of votes to Oh’s 49.3 percent.

It is widely known in South Korea that Seo is especially popular among conservatives who support former President Park. Local analysts often say Seo was successful in the 2014 election due to the strong support of Park’s followers.

However, the situation is entirely different now. Public sentiment toward Park, who was impeached in disgrace over a corruption scandal, is at an all-time low. Local politicians are busy erasing their connections with Park to ensure survival. Seo, however, has not been able to shake off the association.

Another obstacle for Seo will be the participation of two further candidates with conservative views, which could result in a damaging division of the votes.

Lee Sun-kwon from the Bareunmirae Party and independent candidate Lee Jong-hyuk are considered conservative candidates. That makes three out of five candidates running in the upcoming Busan mayor election conservative.

Based on previous cases in South Korea’s local elections, parties with similar political views have tended to consolidate their candidates and support only one in the name of “looking at the bigger picture.”

However, no such move has been signaled by the conservative candidates this time so far.

By contrast, the atmosphere is more favorable for Oh. He has been building the image of an engaged local community contributor by serving as chairman to Busan-based universities. The current government’s initiative to support and advance Busan as Asia’s maritime hub also makes Oh an ideal candidate for Busan citizens.

The economy of Busan and neighboring cities has been walloped by South Korea’s ailing shipping and shipbuilding industries. In particular, Busan suffered hugely from the collapse of South Korea’s flagship Hanjin Shipping last year.

Some worry, however, about Oh’s lack of political experience. He has run for Busan mayor four times to date but has never been successful. In this regard, Oh is not a fresh-faced candidate for Busan’s citizens. If people in Busan are looking for an exciting new figure to end the long-lasting conservative party dominance, Oh might not be their first choice. This gives Seo leverage as he has more in-depth political experience at both the central and regional levels.

As of May 25, a total of five people had officially registered as candidates for the Busan mayoral race. This is a record-high in the history of the contest, reflecting its strategic importance. Will liberal candidates be able to win the election, proving the changes that the city is going through? Or will citizens stick to their original political leanings and vote again for conservative candidates? Stay tuned.