What’s Powering North Korea?

Through propaganda websites with colorful images, North Korea likes to boast of its fancy, newly built skyscrapers, including apartments in Pyongyang. The reality is that, unfortunately, those tall buildings often fail to attract residents mainly due to one reason: There’s no electricity for the elevator.

However, the situation seems to have improved slightly, according to multiple reports released in recent months.

Many inside sources, including one based in Pyongyang who talked to Daily NK, have suggested that the electricity situation in North Korea’s capital has improved over recent months.

But how? Isn’t North Korea currently going through economic turmoil amid tight international sanctions? After all, its energy supply has decreased from 23.9 million of tonnes of oil equivalent in 1990 to 8.7 million in 2015. How has electricity production increased in recent years?

We can find our first clue in the decrease in North Korea’s mineral exports to China.

According to the source mentioned above, North Korea used to struggle to operate its thermoelectric power plants due to the lack of coal to fuel them. The previous coal shortage was caused by the North Korean government’s efforts to increase exports to China. Now intensified international sanctions have provided an opportunity for Pyongyang to utilize its own coal to generate electricity domestically, rather than looking to export the fossil fuel, the source told Daily NK.

Data from the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency shows that North Korea’s mineral exports to China dropped by 64.7 percent between 2013 and 2017. During that same period, its coal exports plummeted by 70.8 percent.

In contrast, North Korea’s energy production volume through thermoelectric power plants jumped from 8.2 billion kilowatt hours (kWh) in 2013 to 11.1 billion kWh in 2016, an unmistakable hint that there may be a correlation between the diversion of coal to domestic consumption and the improvement in North Korea’s electricity supply.

Hydroelectric power plants, another pillar of North Korea’s electricity production, are believed to have done better this year as well.

According to a long-term analysis by the Korea Meteorological Administration, the amount of rainfall in North Korea is increasing. The average annual precipitation in North Korea from 1973 to 2000, a period of 28 years, was 901.4 millimeters. The average annual precipitation for the 30 years from 1981 to 2010 was 919.7 millimeters. Average annual rainfall, in other words, increased by 18.3 mm.

Since the amount of precipitation is directly related to the volume of electricity produced by hydroelectric power plants, it is definitely a good omen for North Korea, which relies on hydropower to generate about 54 percent of its energy.

North Korea also seems to be strongly interested in utilizing alternatives source of energy, including both solar power and wind.

For instance, the government-backed Natural Energy Institute has laid out an ambitious plan to produce about 5 million kilowatts of electricity annually by 2044 through alternative energy sources. That move came after Leader Kim Jong Un stressed the importance of energy production in his 2018 New Year speech.

“The electric-power industry should maintain and reinforce the self-supporting power generation bases, and direct a great deal of efforts to developing new power sources. A dynamic campaign should be conducted to drastically increase thermal power generation, and lower the loss of electric power and increase its production as much as possible by maintaining and reinforcing imperfect generating facilitates,” Kim said in his speech on January 1.

Although all the signs look promising for North Korea, some experts believe there is more to be done, especially considering expectations for inter-Korean cooperation amid a mood of reconciliation.

The two Koreas are in very different stages of power industry development. North Korea's grid, for instance, has serious problems such as low electricity quality and low reliability, which is a critical obstacle to inter-Korean economic cooperation, according to Yoon Jae-young at Korea Electrotechnology Research Institute.

Therefore, the two Koreas should adopt a strategy of step-by-step expansion, starting with a small pilot project when seeking cooperation in the energy sector, he said.

Yoon also suggested a joint master plan should be carefully established by taking advantage of the lessons learned through previous examples, such as post-unification Germany.

“Cooperation in the energy sector is a top priority for North Korea's economic recovery, and not only has a positive impact on the overall North Korean economy, but it is also expected to be a win-win game for both Kores,” he noted.