Singapore’s Next Election: How Tough Will be PAP’s Fight Be?

In November, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong made headlines in remarks at a party convention when said that his ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) should prepare for a “tough fight” in the country’s next general election. His remarks spotlighted the run-up to the country’s upcoming polls, which are to he held sometime before early 2021.

The PAP, one of the world’s longest-serving ruling parties, has governed Singapore since its independence in 1965 and won subsequent election contests fairly comfortably, with the latest in 2015. But scrutiny on the country’s domestic politics has increased over the past few years as the PAP enters a gradual transition process that will see current Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, son of PAP founder Lee Kuan Yew, eventually step aside in the next few years. A new generation of leaders is expected to take the helm, led by Heng Swee Keat, said to be Lee’s likely successor.

Singapore’s next election must be held before April 2021, though speculation continues to surface about Lee calling for polls in early 2020. Amid the run-up to that next election, there has been increased scrutiny regarding the range of domestic and international challenges and uncertainties that Singapore and the ruling PAP face, from an ongoing family feud between Lee Hsien Loong and his younger siblings to wider geopolitical developments such as rising populism and protectionism and the growing U.S.-China rivalry.

In remarks made at a party convention on November 10, Lee said that the PAP should “prepare for a tough fight” at the next general election, making reference to geopolitical developments including protests in Hong Kong and Chile, which revealed discontent with institutions, as well as growing U.S.-China rivalry. Amid these developments, Lee warned that politics could turn unstable or dysfunctional. He also underscored the fact that the leadership transition meant that this was a “high-stakes election” for the PAP, and that, as a result, the party must convince Singaporeans to give it a strong mandate to not just return a PAP government, “but also to secure Singapore for the long term.”

Lee’s comments fit with the messaging that the PAP has been putting out ahead of polls. As with the lead up to the last election in 2015, even though the PAP still remains in a strong position to win the next election, Singapore’s leaders have stressed that it is important not to take the party’s position for granted, especially in the wake of manifold challenges at home and abroad. Furthermore, they have also underscored the fact that this election will not be a normal election given both the leadership transition that is at play domestically as well as the difficult geopolitical environment internationally.

How “tough” the PAP’s fight will be in the upcoming election, however, remains to be seen. On the one hand, for all the challenges it has endured, the PAP still retains significant strength. Opposition parties continue to face major structural obstacles in not only increasing their vote shares, but translating those gains into seats and sustaining that over multiple elections. For all the speculation about Singapore’s politics and the PAP’s position, it is worth recalling that the PAP won all but six of 89 elected seats in parliament in the 2015 election. Some opposition members have recently admitted that there continues to be a legitimate prospect of further losses of seats in the next election, and perhaps even a total wipeout.

On the other hand, if, as Lee noted, the objective of the PAP is to win an especially strong mandate to erase any doubts about the new generation of leaders and to pave the way for them to make new inroads on the country’s future, then that will require quite a convincing win. That will in turn require the PAP to leave no stone unturned in addressing concerns that might remain regarding its performance, be it in terms of shoring up the economy or addressing lingering domestic concerns on issues such as high cost of living.

Some of that is already ongoing, with improvements being rolled out in areas such as education and job skills training as well as suggestions that more support will be provided to the public to cope with an announced rise in the Goods and Services Tax (GST), as Heng Swee Keat said in his own remarks at the PAP convention. And we will perhaps see more steps taken in this direction in the coming months, whether it be public awareness campaigns to reinforce the PAP’s record on various fronts or new policies unveiled at particular points including the next budget, which is expected to be revealed in February 2020.

As we see these developments play out in the headlines in the coming months, the bigger question of the outcome of Singapore’s election and the future of its politics and the PAP itself as a party will continue to loom large. Given Singapore’s strategic significance as a country, the evolution of this will continue to be important to watch into 2020 and beyond as it will have broader effects on its domestic and foreign policy.