In Opposition-Government Battle, Where Does the Pakistani Military Stand?

Pakistan’s opposition parties kicked off their campaign to remove the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government with a massive rally in Punjab in mid-October. The rally held in Gujranwala city, known as the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)’s stronghold, was attended by other key opposition leaders including the chief of the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam Fazl (JUI-F), Fazalur Rehman, and Bilawal Bhutto of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP).

Opposition leaders have warned the PTI: “This puppet government will not be allowed to continue by the end of December.” It appears that opposition parties have decided to take the fight to Pakistan’s national security establishment, which allegedly supports the current government.

With the opposition posing a serious challenge in Punjab province and its Islamist allies bringing in ruthless street power, nothing is final when it comes to where the Pakistani military stands in the conflict.

It has become increasingly clear that Pakistan’s military is not happy with the way the PTI has ruled Punjab. Punjab is a province that defines the military’s institutional power and support base. If Punjab is not being handled effectively, that means keeping the PTI in power is not sustainable for the military establishment. Explaining the military’s fears regarding the opposition movement, Fahd Hussain writes that the issue “becomes even more sensitive because the Establishment [the military] remains unhappy with PTI’s choices in Punjab. There is a fault line on this page.” This essentially means that the opposition’s decision to turn Punjab into the center stage for anti-government organizing is only going to intensify the military’s worries. 

Compounding the issue is the JUI-F’s challenge. For more than a year, Rehman has been trying to push the other opposition parties to follow the path of agitation. His previous decision to unilaterally launch a movement against the government ended with the military negotiating with him directly. Now, however, Rehman comes with broad political support, hardened battle lines, and a narrative that has taken the situation to a point of no return. On top of that, the opposition has appointed him as the head of their movement. Certainly, it’s a clever choice when it comes to forcing the military into taking the movement seriously. Nothing annoys Pakistani generals more than a situation where they are forced to deal with Islamist protesters in the streets. This time around, Rehman is not on their side and this should worry the military.

Furthermore, the crisis comes at a time of growing discontent between citizens and the state over the issues of poor governance and mounting inflation. According to a recent survey by Gallup, more than 47 percent of Pakistanis believe that the current government has destroyed the economy. The survey reiterates the results of another study carried out recently by France-based IPSOS, a market research firm. The survey, titled “Consumer Confidence Survey in Pakistan,” revealed that four out of five Pakistanis believe that the country is headed in the wrong direction. The survey noted that a significant increase in inflation and poverty over the last year remains a key issue.

Already, Pakistan’s Traders Association has announced it would join the opposition movement. In June, Pakistani traders launched an agitation campaign against the PTI’s government over the worsening economic situation. However, due to the lack of political support, it couldn’t get much attention.

At this point, nothing is certain about how the masses view the current agitation movement. The possibility remains of thousands of citizens joining the movement against the government. The Diplomat spoke with several people who supported the PTI before the 2018 general election. The majority of them are of the view that voting for the PTI was a mistake and they do not necessarily oppose the current movement against the government. This should worry the military establishment, as the last thing they want to do is be seen as siding with a party that has lost support among the public.

As the movement ramps up, some analysts believe that Pakistan’s military has taken a neutral stance. “At this point, the military and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) appear neutral. They are probably assessing the situation and have not decided anything yet,” said Sohail Warraich, a senior Pakistani journalist. The military establishment’s decision will depend on “which side wins when both groups face off in the streets,” he noted further.

In a way, this is already a setback for a PTI government that has done everything during the last two years to undermine the opposition’s attempts to patch up ties with the military.

As the movement develops, the military will assess the situation carefully. There are chances of the protest movement turning into a violent conflict if clashes erupt among rival political groups and police in the streets.

The military is likely to view the situation as a combination of threats and opportunities. It is an opportunity because the military can use the opposition’s threats to force Prime Minister Imran Khan into changing Punjab’s governing structures. On the other hand, the movement becomes a threat if the opposition leaders continue targeting military leadership in their rallies. The PML-N’s chief has promised to make the movement a force to be reckoned with for the people who brought Khan to power by rigging the last general election. The movement’s narrative will offer important insights into what the opposition’s leaders want to achieve.

Going forward, the PTI government will need all the political savvy it can muster to deal with the opposition movement effectively and keep the military on its side. It is going to be a prolonged war of nerves, behind the scenes negotiations, and concessions. However, one thing is certain: The movement is not going away without getting some concessions from the national security establishment. The opposition needs to put a prolonged show in the streets to gain the military’s attention and weaken the government.

If the situation swirls out of control with the movement becoming violent and popular, the PTI government should be ready to make concessions. As far as the military’s support, everything depends on one simple question: Whichever side wins the people’s support will gain the military’s support.

A major political crisis is brewing in Pakistan and the military has its fair share in it.