Tokyo Olympics: To Be or Not To Be?

With less than five months remaining until the scheduled opening of the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics, Japanese Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide faces a monumental decision that could cost him his office: Should Japan hold the Olympics as scheduled, postpone for another year, or cancel entirely?  

In his policy address to the Diet on January 18, 2021, Suga declared his government’s intention to move steadily forward on holding the Olympics in Japan “as the proof of human beings having overcome the novel coronavirus and of Japan’s recovery and reconstruction from the Great Eastern Japan Earthquake.”  However, as countries around the world continue to struggle to contain the spread of COVID-19, particularly with the surfacing of multiple variants, whether Japan can host the Olympics safely for participating athletes as well as spectators looks increasingly uncertain.  

A sense of anxiety about the feasibility of the Olympics and Paralympics also seems to be spreading among the Japanese public, especially since the Japanese government declared a second state of emergency in early January. The state of emergency declaration, which went into effect on January 7, includes major metropolitan areas such as Tokyo and Osaka. It was initially supposed to last for a month, but has been extended and as of writing is set to expire on March 7. 

In a public opinion poll conducted by NHK (the Japan Broadcasting Corporation) in early January, only 16 percent of respondents thought the Olympics and Paralympics should be held as scheduled — showing a sharp 11-point drop from a previous NHK opinion poll conducted in December 2020. On the other hand, 77 percent thought further postponement or cancellation may be unavoidable if the spread of the virus cannot be contained. A poll conducted by Nihon Keizai Shimbun in late January came back with a similar result: Only 15 percent of respondents supported the Olympics being held as scheduled with enhanced safety and public health precautionary measures, while over 80 percent responded that they think further postponement or cancellation cannot be avoided.

With the Olympic Torch Relay set to start on March 25 in Fukushima prefecture, leaders of the prefectural governments that are included on the route for the relay are also faced with a difficult decision. The Torch Relay, with more than 10,000 runners including many celebrities participating, is a crowd-gathering event by design. How to execute the relay with maximum public safety precautions in place to prevent spectators from crowding the route poses a serious conundrum for governors across Japan. For instance, Maruyama Tatsuya, governor of Shimane prefecture, recently made news headlines when he announced that his prefectural government is looking into cancelling the portion of the Torch Relay that would pass through Shimane. Maruyama cited his lack of confidence in the central government and Tokyo metropolitan government’s COVID-19 responses so far as part of the decision.

To be fair, the Japanese government is in a tight bind when it comes to this decision. First of all, how much COVID-19 can be contained over the next few months is highly unpredictable. While vaccines are becoming available, Japan just started its vaccination campaign in late February, focusing on doctors and nurses. The Japanese government will be unable to start vaccinating the most vulnerable and essential workers until late spring at the earliest. With so much of the population unlikely to be vaccinated by the time the Olympics begin, other countries may not feel “safe” sending their athletes to Japan even if the Japanese government puts in place public safety precautions, such as requiring participating athletes and volunteers to present proof of a negative COVID-19 test, holding events with no spectators or limited attendance, and thorough sanitization of the venue and equipment.  

However, a decision to cancel the Olympics will strike a devastating blow to the Japanese economy. The Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics already are believed to be the most costly Games in history, with a pricetag estimated at over 1.6 trillion yen ($15.1 billion) of taxpayers’ money. The cancellation would mean an almost total loss of this money (there are some media reports already that the Japanese government will lose about 90 billion yen in ticket revenue alone if the Games are to be held without spectators). Not only that, but the cancellation of the Olympics and Paralympics will rob the vast majority of Japanese businesses of the opportunity to get a much-needed rebound from the influx of foreign travelers who were anticipated to visit Japan during the Games.

Simply put, to hold or not to hold the Tokyo Olympics is a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” decision for Suga, who is already bruised by a descending approval rating. The Olympics question was further aggravated by the recent drama and eventual resignation of former Prime Minister Mori Yoshiro from the chairmanship of Japan Olympic Organizing Committee due to sexist off-the-cuff remarks.      

At the conclusion of virtual G-7 Summit on February 19, the leaders of G-7 countries expressed support for “the commitment of Japan to hold the Olympic and Paralympic Games Tokyo 2020 in a safe and secure manner this summer as a symbol of global unity in overcoming COVID-19” in their joint statement. However, the possibility of Japan holding the Tokyo Olympic and Paralympic Games safely, security, and successfully is far from certain.