South Korea’s Nuclear Power Controversy Takes a New Turn

In late January a South Korean broadcaster revealed previously undisclosed government proposals from 2018 to build a nuclear power plant in North Korea – in stark contrast to President Moon Jae-in’s domestic stance on nuclear energy. The new revelation is linked to an ongoing investigation into whether the administration influenced officials to shut down a nuclear power plant earlier than planned and has sparked renewed backlash from the political opposition in the weeks leading up to a key election before next year’s presidential contest, though it is unclear if it will amount to much.

Running on a populist progressive agenda in 2017, then-candidate Moon Jae-in was highly critical of his predecessors’ embrace of nuclear power, wielding the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan as a foreboding lesson. Early in his tenure as president, Moon laid out sweeping measures to gradually phase out South Korea’s use of nuclear energy, including closing down an aging reactor, delaying the construction of two new reactors, and bringing the number of active reactors down from 24 to no more than 14 by 2038.

While Moon has faced setbacks in rolling back the size of the country’s fleet of nuclear power plants, including “a citizen jury” decision to continue the construction of two new reactors, the administration was able to nullify a planned extension of the Wolseong-1 plant, which has been the center of controversy over the past year. Originally built in 1982 with an expected lifespan of 30 years, Wolseong-1 was approved for a 10-year life extension by the Park Geun-hye administration after around 600 billion won ($540 million) worth of repairs and upgrades. After a court ruling against the extension in 2017, the Nuclear Safety and Security Commission (NSSC) found that the plant did not meet safety standards and was financially unsound and thus closed it down in 2019. A state audit, however, found that the Blue House may have tipped the scales on the NSSC decision for political gain, spurring an investigation into the matter by the Supreme Prosecutor.

This heightened scrutiny on officials from the NSSC and Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy (MOTIE), under which the NSSC falls, directly precipitated the public findings of the plan to build a nuclear plant in North Korea. The administration has stated there is nothing duplicitous about the project intended to help diplomacy with Pyongyang and that it was not previously disclosed because it was one of many ideas left on the cutting room floor. The circumstances surrounding the details coming to light, however, have helped fuel criticism from conservatives. Just before the state auditors were planning to seize documents related to the closing of Wolseong-1 late last year, three MOTIE officials snuck into their offices late at night and deleted 530 files, including the now public nuclear plant proposals for North Korea. Paik Un-gyu, the former MOTIE head who is linked to the Wolseong-1 case, is now also thought to be connected to the erasure of these documents.

Amid the initial blowback, the Moon government divulged some of the documents for the sake of transparency, providing a window into what exactly was being considered. One key document compared three possible plans. The first called for the construction of a light-water nuclear reactor in the same province where a light-water nuclear plant was supposed to have been built under the 1994 Agreed Framework between the United States and North Korea. The second plan considered building the same type of reactor in the Demilitarized Zone between the two Koreas and the third looked into restarting the cancelled construction of two nuclear power plants in South Korea, which would supply power to the North once operational. The document ultimately concluded that the first option would be the most viable, but also stated “there is a limit on drawing up specific steps to promote the plan” and indicated it was just a basis for discussion.

Despite efforts from the Moon government to downplay the significance of the incident, conservatives have been vociferous in their criticism. Kim Jong-in, head of the opposition People Power Party (PPP), called the leaked documents a “shocking and appalling act that abets the enemy.” Right-leaning newspapers and pundits have reverberated these concerns. JoongAng Ilbo, for example, called out the double standard in pursuing a nuclear energy project with the North while phasing it out at home and asked for prosecutors to dig deeper into the case. A senior editorial writer at the newspaper also termed the incident as “Moon’s Nixon moment.” 

Although public attention on the issue has slowly subsided since the news first broke, the political opposition will likely try to use it to try to eat away at the support for the ruling Democratic Party of Korea (DPK) ahead of the mayoral by-elections in Seoul and Busan on April 7 – bellwethers of public sentiment before the presidential election next March. Even if the North Korea plan is not in the spotlight, its connection to Wolseong-1 and the apparent life left in that case as prosecutors have recently tried to obtain an arrest warrant for the former MOTIE head will likely ensure its use as ammunition for conservative arguments. However, it’s unclear how much this will actually matter to voters.

According to polling, the DPK is still considerably more popular than the PPP and both the nuclear energy and North Korea issues rank fairly low among the reasons people are dissatisfied with Moon’s performance, all of which suggest the recent discord will not do much to help the conservatives. A Gallup Korea poll conducted the first week of February – the height of the public discussion surrounding the North Korea nuclear power plant proposal – found that among the 50 percent of respondents who negatively evaluated Moon’s job performance only 9 percent cited relations with North Korea, up 7 points from the previous poll, and 4 percent cited nuclear policy, up 3 points. These changes represent a marginal shift among an electorate that is much more concerned about rising home prices (21 percent) and the state of the economy (12 percent). Despite half of those asked giving the president poor remarks, the same poll also continued the streak of Moon’s DPK party as the most favored among voters.

Without a groundbreaking new development, the latest twist in South Korea’s nuclear power controversy is less consequential than it would initially seem. It is likely fated to be more of a provocative conservative talking point rather than shaping any future election outcomes.