The Tokyo Olympics Will Proceed, But Who Are They For?

On July 23, the Tokyo Olympic Games will start, followed by the Paralympic Games commencing on August 24. In a policy address in front of Japanese Diet on January 18, Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide talked about hosting the Olympics and Paralympics “as the proof of human beings having overcome the novel coronavirus and of Japan’s recovery and reconstruction from the Great Eastern Japan Earthquake [of 2011].” With the government ramping up the pace of vaccinations, it now looks as though Japan might be able to reach the threshold necessary to allow the government to start easing restrictions on social activities.

However, even as the Japanese government pushes forward with hosting the Olympics and Paralympics as planned, the public mood is hardly jovial. Quite the opposite: The public remains anxious, if not divided about whether they want the Olympics and Paralympics to be held at all.

Public opinion polls taken in early June indicated deep ambivalence among the public across the political spectrum. On the conservative end, a poll jointly taken by Sankei Shimbun and Fuji News Network indicated that close to 70 percent of the respondents support the Olympics and Paralympics, but only with additional public health safely precautions, such as limiting the spectator capacity to no more than 50 percent or holding the Games with no spectators. On the other end of the spectrum, a poll conducted by Mainichi Shimbun the same week found that approximately 64 percent of respondents did not think the Japanese government could deliver on its promise to hold Olympics and Paralympics “safely” as Suga himself repeatedly promised. In the center, a poll taken by the Yomiuri Shimbun showed that the public is nearly divided on whether Japan should host the Olympics and Paralympics as planned, with 50 percent supporting and 48 percent opposing.

In short, the Japanese public is far from excited about hosting the Olympics and Paralympics later this month.

Indeed, the Japanese public has good reason to feel ambivalent. First and foremost, their confidence in the Suga administration’s capability to manage a crisis continues to tank. This is evident in the aforementioned poll taken by Sankei Shimbun and Fuji News Network, in which close to 57 percent of the respondents do not approve of the government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic so far. The poll taken by Yomiuri Shimbun put the approval rating for the Suga administration at its all-time low, with only 37 percent supporting the cabinet. Vacillation over the capacity of the Olympic venues, the government’s response plan in case there is an outbreak after the Games begin, and other minor details such as whether to allow the sale of alcoholic beverages at Olympic sites only further aggravated the public’s already low confidence.

In addition, there has already been a case reported in which an Ugandan athlete who arrived in Osaka as a part of the Ugandan national team ahead of the Olympics tested positive for COVID-19, forcing the entire team to be quarantined. Together with the news that Cornwall — where G-7 leaders met for their summit in mid-June — is seeing a sharp spike in COVID-19 cases after the summit, these reports are only fueling the anxiety among people about a possible COVID-19 outbreak before, during, and after the Olympics and Paralympics. And if the above public opinion polls are any guide, people’s confidence in the Japanese government’s ability to handle such an emergency is very low.

However, the Japanese government is in a bind. On the one hand, if Japan decides to try to cancel the games at the last minute, the government could potentially be fined by the International Olympic Committee (IOC) for a breach of contract, which would set the Japanese economy even further back as it struggles to recover from the economic impact of COVID-19. On the other hand, should there be a COVID-19 outbreak associated with the Olympics and Paralympics, Suga’s government will face stern public criticism for not heeding public opinion and instead pushing forward with hosting the Games at the expense of the health and safety of its own people. Indeed, should the latter scenario unfold, it will signal a bleak outcome for Suga and his ruling Liberal Democratic Party/Komeito coalition in the upcoming general election, due by October 2021.

After all is said and done, these developments surrounding the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics should make not just Japan but the rest of the world ask themselves this question — who are the Olympics and Paralympics for?