South Korea’s 20-30 Generation Could Decide the Upcoming Presidential Election

The “20-30 generation,” sometimes dubbed the “MZ generation,” is a key demographic group in South Korea’s March presidential election. With the two leading candidates, Lee Jae-myung and Yoon Suk-yeol, neck and neck in the polls, this group of swing voters between the age of 18 and 39 could decide who takes the Blue House for the next five years.

South Korean 20-30 voters make up about a third of the total eligible voter population. In terms of pure numbers, the South Korean population in the 60-plus age range is larger, but it is the unpredictability of the 20-30 voters that puts candidates on edge. A key characteristic of young voters in their 20s and 30s is that they are not tied to a particular party or political ideology. They will vote according to candidates’ policies and political stances on the particular issues they care about, even if that means voting for a different party in each election.

Generally speaking, South Korean voters over 60 are more conservative and they vote for candidates from the conservative party. Those in their 50s are more evenly divided between two parties, while those in their 40s mostly vote for Democratic Party candidates. However, those below 40 are the most undecided voters; the majority of them are willing to change their minds at any time.

With people in this age range either born in or having grown up in the digital age with smartphones, they are a social media-savvy generation, skilled at not only accessing information about the candidates but also sharing it quickly. Political memes and video clips of candidates after major announcements spread quickly throughout online communities and influence how people perceive information. With the pandemic restricting large gatherings and physical campaigning, the role of online communities has been more important than ever.

So what is the 20-30 generation looking for in their next president? The three major issues that are important to this demographic are secure employment, a stable and affordable housing market, and a fair society.

South Korea saw sharp housing price surges in the past few years and Koreans in their 20s and 30s are overwhelmed. Many feel hopeless about affording a place to live, let alone buying a property. Additionally, the job market has been tough despite the Moon Jae-in administration’s pledge to prioritize job creation. A generation that was once hopeful for change with Moon has been disillusioned by the harsh realities of the past five years. The unexpected pandemic intensified the economic crunch, and it has been especially hard on those in their 20s and 30s.

Given the current difficult circumstances beyond their control, fairness is also a key value for the 20-30 generation. They were particularly upset with the Choi Soon-sil and Cho Kuk scandals, in which children from privileged families received preferential treatment for academic studies and credentials. The two leading candidates, Lee and Yoon, are both muddied with their own corruption allegations and scandals. This is not helping young voters decide.

The 20-30 generation is keenly interested in gender issues, too, but it is also the most polarized generation in this regard. While South Korean women do not feel safe and want more legal protections from the government and society, South Korean men see these measures as discrimination against them. Polarization along gender lines is difficult for political leaders to navigate. It has become a double-edged sword, where if a policy leans toward one gender, the other gender will oppose it. South Korea’s young males, especially in their 20s, showed more support for Yoon as soon as he announced anti-feminist policies. Female voters in their 20s and 30s are still largely undecided – they don’t get as much attention compared to men – but their vote is still in play.

Presidential candidates recognize the importance of the 20-30 generation and have been announcing campaign pledges to attract their votes. However, as they attempt to tailor their campaign platforms toward what they think the 20-30 generation would like, candidates’ platforms often overlap, and both Lee and Yoon have struggled to maintain young people’s support in polling.

After a surprise victory in the April 2021 by-elections thanks to overwhelming support from the 20-30 generation, the opposition People Power Party appointed 36-year-old Lee Jun-seok as party chairman. He was tasked with focusing on younger voters to rejuvenate the conservative party. For the PPP, it was their chance to redeem themselves after losing four consecutive elections from 2016 to 2020, with an eye toward possibly retaking the Blue House in 2022. However, maintaining the support of the 20-30 generation has been harder than the PPP expected.

Some young Koreans defected from the party when Yoon was chosen as the PPP candidate over Hong Joon-pyo, who was seen as more moderate; some started supporting third party candidate Ahn Cheol-soo. Some, however, showed strong support when Yoon announced gender-based pledges such as abolishing the Ministry of Gender Equality and Family. With these noticeable shifts, Yoon seems to have focused his stance on securing 20-30 male voters, especially those in their 20s.

Yoon’s other campaign pledges include easing regulations for businesses, especially for start-ups, so that they can create more jobs and establishing a fair employment environment. In regard to real estate, Yoon promises to create 250,000 new homes, including 30,000 dedicated to 20-30 first-time buyers to be sold at cost.

The Democratic Party is also having its own trouble attracting young voters. The 20-30 generation was a strong core that helped Moon Jae-in get elected in 2017. But as more people are unhappy with his government’s handling of COVID-19 and the real estate market, his support base is not guaranteed for the March election. While more male voters in their 20s have turned to Yoon and Ahn, Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung is trying to appeal to the 20-30 female voters, who traditionally have been strong supporters of the Democratic Party and Moon. On January 18, Lee announced his first pledge targeted to appeal to female voters: efforts to make the workplace fair and free from discrimination.

Focused on growth and opportunity, Lee promises a basic income for the 20-30 generation of 2 million Korean won ($1,600) per year. Lee also pledged to increase housing supply with 100,000 new units dedicated as “basic housing,” which anyone who does not own a property can rent for the long-term without existing restrictions.

Both candidates are still rolling out more detailed policy platforms, but seem more similar than different in their pledges to appeal to the 20-30 voters with little time left to differentiate themselves. The election is less than two months away and the 20-30 generation votes are still up for grabs. The first TV debate between the candidates took place at the end of January, and subsequent debates will be opportunities for the young voters to judge candidates based on their platforms.

As seen with the Moon administration, it is important for the 20-30 generation that candidates follow through with their campaign pledges and impact their individual lives. Just as the mayoral by-elections in 2021 shifted the political landscape in South Korea, the upcoming March election results will also impact the following local election in June 2022. If the 20-30 voters become disillusioned with the elected presidential candidate, they will show their dissatisfaction by changing their votes.