[{"_1":2,"_295":-5,"_296":-5},"loaderData",{"_3":4,"_16":17,"_293":294},"root",{"_5":6,"_14":15},"fb",{"_7":8,"_9":10,"_11":12,"_13":8},"apiKey","AIzaSyAdxqOaB63feHHqSm_nZCKsSHpSAcxkct8","authDomain","thediplomat.firebaseapp.com","projectId","firebase-thediplomat","appId","ga",true,"routes/$issue",{"_18":19,"_20":21,"_22":23},"slug","2022-05","path","/2022-05","issue",{"_24":25,"_26":27,"_28":29,"_30":31,"_32":33,"_34":35,"_36":37,"_38":39,"_40":41,"_42":43},"eid","-N0_AarqoSdov3jrJYES","title","Can the US Deter a Taiwan Invasion?","description","Welcome to the May 2022 issue of The Diplomat. This month, our cover story argues that U.S. deterrence power in a potential Taiwan Strait conflict has grown dangerously weak. We also analyze the legacy of Japan’s post-war constitution, scrutinize the role China policy is playing in Australia’s election, and explore the Afghan diaspora’s efforts to stave off a hunger crisis in their homeland. And, of course, we offer a range of reporting, analysis, and opinion from across the region.","masthead","

\n Publisher\n Diplomat Media, Inc.
\n 3033 Wilson Blvd
\n Suite 700
\n Arlington, VA 22201
\n United States of America\n

\n Publisher\n James Pach\n

\n Editor-in-Chief\n Shannon Tiezzi\n

\n Managing Editor\n Catherine Putz\n

\n Southeast Asia Editor\n Sebastian Strangio\n

\n South Asia Editor\n Sudha Ramachandran\n

\n Contributing Editors\nKavita Chowdhury
\nNiha Dagia
\nBonnie Girard
\nJames Guild
\nUmida Hashimova
\nBrian Hioe
\nSara Hsu
\nLuke Hunt
\nUmair Jamal
\nMercy A. Kuo
\nJongsoo Lee
\nJoshua Mcdonald
\nShafi Md Mostofa
\nMong Palatino
\nJacob Parakilas
\nSantosh Sharma Poudel
\nRajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan
\nTita Sanglee
\nMitch Shin
\nThisanka Siripala
\nPaolo Sorbello
\nTroy Stangarone
\nYuki Tatsumi
\nColleen Wood
\nGrant Wyeth\n

\n Design & Code\n Stefan Yanku\n

","number",90,"date","May 2022","month",5,"year",2022,"status","rdy","toc",[44,60,67,84,93,118,142,167,192,217,238,255,276],{"_24":45,"_46":47,"_26":48,"_49":50},"LTR","priority",0,"Letter","pages",[51],{"_24":52,"_53":54,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":59},"-N0_AzN1onVDIprE6iCD","lead","

In this issue we look at the political decision-making that can make war possible – or nearly impossible – and the social pressures that contribute to those choices.

","model","story","preview",1,"Letter from the Editors",{"_24":61,"_46":58,"_26":62,"_49":63},"CVRS","Cover Story",[64],{"_24":65,"_53":66,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":27},"-N0_AzN7emRl22jOAo2m","

Rethinking “strategic ambiguity” is important, but in the meantime Washington must compensate for its dwindling military advantage over China with more costly signals of political resolve.

",{"_24":68,"_46":69,"_26":70,"_49":71},"LDS",2,"Leads",[72,76,80],{"_24":73,"_53":74,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":75},"-N0_AzN8IX-KW2YwKkm-","

How does Japan’s post-war constitution hold up in an era of increasing great power competition and unexpected emergencies?

","Japan’s Constitution at 75",{"_24":77,"_53":78,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":58,"_40":41,"_26":79},"-N0_AzN9j6__DJ9RDEzg","

How best to manage ties with China ought to be a central election issue, but the campaign narratives are focused on posturing rather than policy.

","Australia’s Elections: The China Narrative",{"_24":81,"_53":82,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":69,"_40":41,"_26":83},"-N0_AzNAsy0I9ruJyjBX","

Global attention on Afghanistan has largely dried up, but the Afghan diaspora cannot look away.

","Far From Home: The Afghans Aiding Afghanistan",{"_24":85,"_46":86,"_26":87,"_49":88},"INT",3,"Interview",[89],{"_24":90,"_53":91,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":92},"-N0_AzNBz7kZnjvKT9pJ","

“North Korea is not sending signals it is open to diplomacy, but waiting for it to do so is a serious mistake.”

","Interview: Jenny Town and Joel Wit",{"_24":94,"_46":95,"_26":96,"_49":97},"CHN",4,"China",[98,102,106,110,114],{"_24":99,"_53":100,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":101},"-N0_AzNCep09iypjUeEY","

Once again, China is learning that its investments and influence in another country are always subject to domestic politics.

","Instability in South Asia Spells Trouble for China",{"_24":103,"_53":104,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":58,"_40":41,"_26":105},"-N0_AzNDdhkE1nlK8ZjE","

The quarantine crisis in Shanghai is proof that China’s “zero COVID” policy has taken on a life of its own.

","The Shanghai Lockdown Looks More Like a Crackdown",{"_24":107,"_53":108,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":69,"_40":41,"_26":109},"-N0_AzNEde1GYayUGPBY","

Beijing’s ideal vision for China-EU relations urgently needs an update to grapple with recent developments – starting with the Ukraine war.

","China’s Vision for Relations With Europe Is Slipping Out of Reach",{"_24":111,"_53":112,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":86,"_40":41,"_26":113},"-N0_AzNG-cVS0fRP1Wlj","

The party-state is using its extensive information control toolbox to artificially amplify its version of Russia’s invasion.

","The CCP’s Ukraine War Propaganda",{"_24":115,"_53":116,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":95,"_40":41,"_26":117},"-N0_AzNH61FqhFsCR2Ud","

Lee is back in Taiwan after serving a five-year sentence for “subverting state power.” Several other Taiwanese remain in detention on politically motivated charges.

","Taiwanese Lee Ming-che Freed From Detention in China",{"_24":119,"_46":37,"_26":120,"_49":121},"NEA","Northeast Asia",[122,126,130,134,138],{"_24":123,"_53":124,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":125},"-N0_AzNIOHP8Y2dPXz7U","

A look back at the alliance under the tenure of outgoing President Moon Jae-in.

","South Korea-US Relations: The Moon Years",{"_24":127,"_53":128,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":58,"_40":41,"_26":129},"-N0_AzNJd7RRM9PdCgYF","

Would Japan’s military and people be able to replicate Ukraine’s resilient and determined response in the face of an invasion?

","Russia’s Ukraine Invasion Poses Difficult Questions for Japan",{"_24":131,"_53":132,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":69,"_40":41,"_26":133},"-N0_AzNKY9_TQ5byHi6F","

The incoming Yoon administration will change Seoul’s overtures on North Korea issues. As a result, the arms race will likely be intensified in the coming years.

","What to Expect From Yoon Suk-yeol’s Policy on North Korea",{"_24":135,"_53":136,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":86,"_40":41,"_26":137},"-N0_AzNL55wcNnFdIZgy","

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has forced the Japanese government to confront its energy sufficiency woes. Speeding up the development of offshore wind power is one solution.

","Offshore Wind Power May Be the Key to Japan’s Energy Security",{"_24":139,"_53":140,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":95,"_40":41,"_26":141},"-N0_AzNMUZqhGTezI-75","

It was the second highest number of scrambles in a single year, representing the worsening security environment surrounding Japan.

","Japan Scrambled Fighter Jets to Intercept Foreign Aircraft Over 1,000 Times in FY2021",{"_24":143,"_46":144,"_26":145,"_49":146},"SOA",6,"South Asia",[147,151,155,159,163],{"_24":148,"_53":149,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":150},"-N0_AzNrufVmLliWT0fm","

Sri Lankans are calling for the end of Rajapaksa rule, but President Gotabaya and Prime Minister Mahinda are not budging.

","Sri Lanka’s Ruling Rajapaksas: Down But Not Out",{"_24":152,"_53":153,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":58,"_40":41,"_26":154},"-N0_AzNtcWEDXJot9TCN","

The next few months will be tough for new Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, with a host of domestic and international challenges.

","Pakistan's New Government Enters Minefield Left by Khan",{"_24":156,"_53":157,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":69,"_40":41,"_26":158},"-N0_AzNuwJMA006_GeUx","

In the emerging global order, is India’s hewing to “strategic autonomy” more trouble than it’s worth?

","Is Strategic Autonomy a Boon or Burden for India?",{"_24":160,"_53":161,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":86,"_40":41,"_26":162},"-N0_AzNvjEZiSx90BLD7","

Nepal is heading into its second round of local elections under its 2015 constitution. How have local governments fared in their inaugural session?

","5 Years of Local Governance in Nepal",{"_24":164,"_53":165,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":95,"_40":41,"_26":166},"-N0_AzNw3CUDmyflLwQo","

The Delhi-driven subregional arrangement faces a number of challenges but stands as a noteworthy endeavor to coordinate on maritime safety and security in the Indian Ocean region.

","Challenges Ahead for the Colombo Security Conclave, the Indian Ocean Quad",{"_24":168,"_46":169,"_26":170,"_49":171},"SEA",7,"Southeast Asia",[172,176,180,184,188],{"_24":173,"_53":174,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":175},"-N0_AzNz5lL41v1aL40E","

With every passing month that the Tatmadaw wages war against its own population, its legitimacy – and manpower – are ebbing ever further away.

","Myanmar’s Anti-Coup Resistance Looks to Tatmadaw Defections, Sabotage",{"_24":177,"_53":178,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":58,"_40":41,"_26":179},"-N0_AzO-xb86shd5WWTh","

Leni Robredo’s upstart presidential campaign gained ground in April, but remained far behind frontrunner Ferdinand Marcos Jr.

","The Philippines’ Pink Wave",{"_24":181,"_53":182,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":69,"_40":41,"_26":183},"-N0_AzO11fyBzLilhXh_","

The war in Ukraine is only one of the obstacles facing President Joko Widodo’s administration.

","The Challenges Facing Indonesia’s G20 Presidency",{"_24":185,"_53":186,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":86,"_40":41,"_26":187},"-N0_AzO27YNBG90XDIAz","

Despite the city-state’s retention of Section 377A, which prohibits sexual relations between consenting men, LGBTQ+ activists see stirrings of progress.

","Singapore’s Slow but Steady Path Toward Decriminalizing Homosexuality",{"_24":189,"_53":190,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":95,"_40":41,"_26":191},"-N0_AzO3047kGYsWfuuK","

Building on the recent successes of fresh negotiations will depend on both sides overcoming decades-old difficulties.

","Old Challenges Loom Over Southern Thailand’s New Peace Talks",{"_24":193,"_46":194,"_26":195,"_49":196},"CEA",8,"Central Asia",[197,201,205,209,213],{"_24":198,"_53":199,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":200},"-N0_AzO4yq3j_VornurR","

Whatever Atambayev’s sins, in 2022 he’s trapped in a vortex of Kyrgyz political hypocrisy.

","Woe Unto Atambayev",{"_24":202,"_53":203,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":58,"_40":41,"_26":204},"-N0_AzO6WHwisHZkumJw","

Kazakhstan, the world’s leading uranium producer, stands to benefit from a possible European transition from Russian gas to domestic nuclear power.

","European Energy Security: An Opportunity for Kazakhstan’s Uranium Industry",{"_24":206,"_53":207,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":69,"_40":41,"_26":208},"-N0_AzO7PZrCmaOM28N_","

The trial made an unexpected turn when an expert said Chorshanbe Chorshanbiev’s comments did not actually contain a call to violence.

","MMA Fighter Facing Charges in Tajikistan Over Pro-Pamiri Comments",{"_24":210,"_53":211,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":86,"_40":41,"_26":212},"-N0_AzO9O0Q5E268O_fN","

Uzbekistan’s position in the middle of Central Asia is a source of strength but also vulnerability.

","Uzbekistan Looks South for New Trade Routes",{"_24":214,"_53":215,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":95,"_40":41,"_26":216},"-N0_AzOAISDl4TAo7c-y","

While Kazakhstan has the potential to be an influential player in the global grain economy, it needs to first overcome domestic and logistic challenges.

","Mixed Fortunes for Kazakh Grain?",{"_24":218,"_46":219,"_26":220,"_49":221},"OCE",9,"Oceania",[222,226,230,234],{"_24":223,"_53":224,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":225},"-N0_AzOBU_0MmxfK5tnu","

Australia could be at the forefront of hydrogen power technology and production.

","Japan Looks to Australia for Hydrogen Boost",{"_24":227,"_53":228,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":58,"_40":41,"_26":229},"-N0_AzOCGR3UMY00u92r","

The deal was likely China’s response to AUKUS. Now Australia and the U.S. will consider how to respond, possibly intensifying the security competition in the Pacific.

","The Geopolitical Aftershocks of the China-Solomon Islands Security Agreement",{"_24":231,"_53":232,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":69,"_40":41,"_26":233},"-N0_AzOE2rJW-IvpqV5M","

It is not just the Pacific region angered by Prime Minister Morrison’s unchanged coal-loving stance. Now he will have to answer to the Australian electorate on this critical issue.

","This Is Australia’s Climate Change Election",{"_24":235,"_53":236,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":86,"_40":41,"_26":237},"-N0_AzOF8fM1VDjKVMCT","

A group of fellows at the University of Melbourne’s Australia India Institute recently resigned, alleging restrictions on their academic freedom.

","What an Academic Freedom Debate Says About Australia-India Relations",{"_24":239,"_46":240,"_26":241,"_49":242},"USA",10,"US in Asia",[243,247,251],{"_24":244,"_53":245,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":246},"-N0_AzOIOj4A7DA-BTQA","

The Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific Economic Framework lacks vision – and not only on trade issues.

","The Problem With IPEF",{"_24":248,"_53":249,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":58,"_40":41,"_26":250},"-N0_AzOJ69hJ8TSxaWBJ","

Hanoi enjoys considerable leverage as a frontline state in Washington’s strategic competition with Beijing.

","Why Vietnam Holds the Trump Card in the US-Vietnam Partnership",{"_24":252,"_53":253,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":69,"_40":41,"_26":254},"-N0_AzOKUDOxfsIp_H9k","

Since its unveiling under the Obama administration, the U.S. “pivot” to Asia has constantly been derailed by emergencies elsewhere. The Ukraine war is just the latest example.

","The US Pivot to Asia Was Dead on Arrival",{"_24":256,"_46":257,"_26":258,"_49":259},"SCR",11,"Security",[260,264,268,272],{"_24":261,"_53":262,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":263},"-N0_AzOOeevFEK8l7aZh","

Russia’s failures in Ukraine demonstrate that the ability to project power successfully is not simply a matter of pure military expenditure; coercion requires a more balanced set of national assets.

","Going to War With the Army You Can Support",{"_24":265,"_53":266,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":58,"_40":41,"_26":267},"-N0_AzOP5GAFZGoSp_bo","

Terrorism in the region has plummeted amid the COVID-19 pandemic. Will reopened borders lead to a resurgence in terrorist networks?

","As Southeast Asia Reopens, Will Transnational Terrorism Return?",{"_24":269,"_53":270,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":69,"_40":41,"_26":271},"-N0_AzOQMnJOguS7w7Bp","

China is watching Russia’s military mistakes in Ukraine and will apply those lessons to its battle planning for a conflict in the Taiwan Strait.

","What the PLA Is Learning From Russia’s Ukraine Invasion",{"_24":273,"_53":274,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":86,"_40":41,"_26":275},"-N0_AzORU691EfxVnfKB","

Manila’s acquisition of a submarine fleet should be guided by nothing less than the need to deter or win future wars.

","The Philippines Wants to Acquire Submarines. What Should They Be Used For?",{"_24":277,"_46":278,"_26":279,"_49":280},"ASL",12,"Asia Life",[281,285,289],{"_24":282,"_53":283,"_55":56,"_57":58,"_46":47,"_40":41,"_26":284},"-N0_AzOUqO2vUNhbMdv-","

Ukraine was fast becoming a popular destination for Indian movie producers.

","Indian Filmmakers Liked Ukraine. What Now?",{"_24":286,"_53":287,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":58,"_40":41,"_26":288},"-N0_AzOVA_MSmG8v7_70","

Student societies have long played an important role in Hong Kong activism. Now they are dying out amid the wider crackdown on dissent.

","The Death of Hong Kong’s University Student Unions",{"_24":290,"_53":291,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":69,"_40":41,"_26":292},"-N0_AzOWSP6vyut_BshD","

With few exceptions, South Korea’s K-pop idols have been conspicuously silent on controversial subjects – including the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

","It’s Time for K-pop Stars to Speak Out on Human Rights","routes/$issue.cover",{"_18":19,"_20":21,"_22":23},"actionData","errors"]