Letter from the Editors
In this issue we look at the political decision-making that can make war possible – or nearly impossible – and the social pressures that contribute to those choices.
Welcome to the May 2022 issue of The Diplomat Magazine.
“War is a continuation of politics by other means,” or so Carl von Clausewitz proposed. With war very much in the headlines, in this issue we look at the political decision-making that that can make war possible – or nearly impossible – and the social pressures that contribute to those choices. The line between war and peace can be stark – think Ukraine on February 23 versus February 24 – but the chain of dominoes leading to a conflict stretches back far beyond the first bullets fired.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sparked concern about the United States’ deterrent power against Moscow and other potential adversaries – most notably, Beijing. In our cover article David Gitter, founder and president of the Center for Advanced China Research (CACR), argues that U.S. deterrence of a PRC invasion of Taiwan has been eroding for years, a combination of China’s growing military power as well as increased political will in Beijing to take Taiwan by force. Given those shifts, Gitter argues, the United States’ past approach will no longer serve to convince Beijing that the cost of a full-on invasion are too high. For U.S. deterrence to remain effective, Washington must rethink its messaging.
Japan’s constitution marks its 75th anniversary this month. The 1947 Constitution was Japan’s second, and like the 1889 Meiji Constitution before it, heralded an overhaul of Japan’s social and political institutions, writes Sheila A. Smith, a senior fellow for Asia-Pacific studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. As Smith explains, the 1947 Constitution had two aims: to democratize and demilitarize Japan. Now, 75 years later, domestic debates continue to evolve on if and how to amend the constitution in the face of a rapidly changing world and newly risen, nearby security threats.
On May 21, Australia will hold a federal election. China is a central issue, write Natasha Kassam and Jennifer Hsu, but not in the way it should be. Kassam, director of the Lowy Institute’s Public Opinion and Foreign Policy Program, and Hsu, a research fellow in the program, note that even as the 50th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Australia fast approaches, it’s been two years since there have been any high-level diplomatic contacts. Rather than wrestling with how best to manage ties with China, the present campaign narratives have been focused on posturing rather than policy. After all, Kassam and Hsu note, the current Coalition government and Labor, the main opposition party, largely agree on the basic approach to China seen thus far.
And finally, we turn to Afghanistan, a country beset by overlapping crises, from poverty and hunger to fading international attention. While much of the world turns from the problems of Afghanistan to the problems of Ukraine, journalist Ezzatullah Mehrdad highlights the continued work of the Afghan diaspora to aid Afghans back home. From Germany to Australia, Afghan diaspora communities strive to support those still back in the country many fled, whether years ago or in the exodus last August. “I just can’t stop thinking about helping my people,” said one Afghan born abroad who nevertheless feels inextricably tied to Afghanistan.
We hope you enjoy these stories and the many more in the following pages.