When Nancy and Newt Went to Taiwan

When U.S. Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi went to Taiwan last month, she did so in the shadow of a legacy left by a previous speaker, Newt Gingrich. Gingrich’s visit to Taiwan on April 2, 1997, was dramatically underscored by the three-day expedition he made to Mainland China first.

Much of the recent media attention has focused on the differences between China's rhetoric and response to Gingrich’s trip in 1997 and its reaction to Pelosi’s 25 years later. Equally if not more interesting is the substance of what each speaker said during their trips, and, importantly, what they didn’t say.

In her official remarks, Pelosi said during a meeting with Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen, “Today the world faces a choice between democracy and autocracy.”

“America's determination to preserve democracy, here in Taiwan and around the world, remains ironclad,” she added, by way of explaining her presence in Taipei.

China initiated live-fire drills in waters surrounding Taiwan shortly after Pelosi landed in Taipei, sending fighter jets and navy vessels repeatedly across the median line in the Taiwan Strait. Tsai met the moment with equally forceful language.

“Facing deliberately heightened military threats, Taiwan will not back down,” Tsai said. “We will firmly uphold our nation's sovereignty and continue to hold the line of defense for democracy.”

It was inevitable that China’s displeasure that Pelosi defied its warnings to stay away from Taiwan would trigger a response larger and louder in 2022 than it was in 1997. So, on cue, Beijing threw a well-orchestrated temper tantrum, and no one should be surprised.

Twenty-five years earlier, however, Gingrich had used his trip to China to tell the Chinese leadership where he believed the United States stood in relation to Taiwan. The New York Times reported on the last day of March 1997 that Gingrich gave Chinese leaders an unequivocal statement defining the U.S. response should China attack Taiwan.

Gingrich, the Times reported, stated: “I said firmly, ‘We want you to understand, we will defend Taiwan. Period.’”

He went on to say, “I think that they are more aware now that we would defend Taiwan if it were militarily attacked,” again according to the New York Times.

By contrast, the closest that Pelosi came to embracing a strong U.S. commitment to Taiwan’s defense was to say that the U.S. will “not abandon” Taiwan.

Those familiar with the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979-80 know that the United States has never made a commitment to directly defend Taiwan. The act “[s]tates that the United States shall provide Taiwan with arms of a defensive character and shall maintain the capacity of the United States to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize the security, or social or economic system, of the people of Taiwan,” according to the congressional summary.

In other words, Washington sells its arms to Taiwan, but doesn’t commit to sending its troops.

But Gingrich’s tough talk then should not be dismissed now. Gingrich, a former professor of history, is still an active figure in the Republican Party, and is a familiar face and commentator on national television. His views still carry significant weight with Republicans. Meanwhile, amid growing China-U.S. competition, more and more politicians – including President Joe Biden – have taken to embracing an explicit commitment to defend Taiwan.

While in Beijing, Gingrich also spoke to students at the Foreign Affairs College (I spent a year there studying Chinese from 1987-88). Despite his harsh warnings on Taiwan to Chinese leadership, Gingrich told the students, many from privileged Chinese Communist Party families, that “You are now dramatically freer than you were 25 years ago.” Economically, it was somewhat true. Politically, although China was firmly still under the direction of the CCP, it was also true; 25 years prior to 1997 would have been 1972, when the Cultural Revolution was in full swing.

In Beijing at the time, I was able, along with others from the international community, to watch coverage of Gingrich's remarks and to follow international coverage of his trip on satellite TV, available almost exclusively to foreigners living in approved compounds and hotels in China (much of which is still true today). Security in the capital was heightened. Beijing wanted no repeat of Nancy Pelosi’s 1991 trip to Tiananmen Square, where she and other members of Congress unfurled a banner commemorating those who had died there and in the vicinity on June 4, 1989.

Fast forward to 2022, and in addition to her longtime focus on human rights and democracy, Pelosi’s trip to Taiwan embraced a business-heavy agenda, something not of much interest to Gingrich during his visit to Taipei. Pelosi, by contrast, held a meeting with semiconductor industry leaders and made frequent references to Taiwan-U.S. economic cooperation, especially on high technology.

However, her economic focus was somewhat marred by the inclusion of her son – whose ties to business interests in Asia have long been the subject of speculation – as part of the delegation. When asked if her son had held business meetings while with her, the speaker replied that “of course” he didn’t. That she had to answer the question at all distracted from the mission of the trip.

Gingrich flew to Tokyo before going on to Taiwan, creating a gap between the two visits that did not please Beijing, but which they could tolerate at the time. But through his combined trips to Beijing and to Taipei, Gingrich left his mark. Many of China’s hawkish youth savored the idea that China could go to war with the U.S. over Taiwan, an idea that, among some, has not lost its appeal.

And in Taiwan, although they knew that Gingrich was overstating the case and that the U.S. had no obligation to come to Taiwan’s direct defense, they were heartened by his moral support. At the time, Taiwan had only had its first presidential direct election the year before, and Hong Kong was about to be handed back to Chinese sovereignty.

Pelosi has also left her mark through her visit to Taiwan, one in which she interestingly did not include a visit to China.

What was Pelosi’s motivation to visit Taiwan? And what was the rationale for going in early August 2022 – a sensitive time for the CCP for a number of reasons?

There are two aspects to the timing question.

First, Pelosi’s visit may have been simply a political item on her bucket list: Go to Taiwan as the first woman at the number three spot in the U.S. government to do so. Ostensibly fly in the face of both the executive branch of the U.S. government as well as the U.S. military (neither institution cheered her on). Show her support for the people of Taiwan, and the thriving democracy they have formed and forged.

Bucket lists are normally associated with key experiences which people want to ensure they have during their lifetime. They tend to be fulfilled with greater frequency as one ages.

However, although Pelosi is 82 years old, one doubts, given her energy and tenacity, that she worries much about her personal list of things-to-do if it does not intersect with her political list. Why would she be eager to check off “Go to Taiwan” in her official position now?

Indeed, from the perspective of domestic politics in the United States, Pelosi’s choice of timing for her Asian excursion and Taiwan trek takes on the makings of a farewell tour as speaker of the House.

Despite her public protestations, Pelosi knows that it is more likely than not that her Democratic Party will not win the majority of seats in this November’s U.S. midterm elections, thus throwing her job to the Republicans and the likely choice of Kevin McCarthy for speaker. Even if the Democrats do win, Pelosi faces increasing pressure to resign to make way for a younger face to take over the House leadership role.

Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taiwan, and the continuing fallout, may be byproduct of a politician trying to fit it all in before November 8.