Duterte and Xi: A Meeting of ‘Old Friends,’ or Something More?

When former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte and Chinese leader Xi Jinping met last month, all parties involved did their best to downplay the event.

Duterte’s former executive secretary Salvador Medialdea, who accompanied Duterte on his visit, told Chinese state media it was “a meeting of two old friends.” He added that Duterte had visited China to attend the inauguration of a school building in Fuzhou province named after his mother.

But Duterte’s trip was undoubtedly more significant than a simple ribbon-cutting visit. The former president visited Xi in Beijing at a meeting attended by heavyweights including state counselor Wang Yi, who has since returned to his former post as foreign minister.

Duterte’s visit came as the Philippines, under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., strikes an increasingly aggressive posture toward its northwestern neighbor.

Under Marcos, the Philippines has reaffirmed its security alliance with the United States by allowing the U.S. military access to four additional military bases. Marcos visited U.S. President Joe Biden in Washington in May, during which Biden called the Washington-Manila alliance “ironclad” and pledged to defend its Pacific ally.

Marcos has also taken a far stronger stance on Manila’s territorial claims to contested areas in the South China Sea, backed by a 2016 international tribunal ruling that Beijing has refused to recognize. Duterte was often happy to ignore the ruling as he sought closer economic ties with China during his presidency, including investment in his signature infrastructure initiatives.

Duterte’s trip to China gave Xi an opportunity not only to visit an old friend, but to tout the potential for warmer ties between his country and the Philippines.

“I hope you will continue to play an important role in the friendly cooperation [between China and the Philippines],” Chinese state media reported Xi as saying to Duterte when they met in Beijing.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., for his part, said the meeting was “personal” in nature and that his predecessor did not need to seek his permission – but that he hoped Duterte and Xi discussed the South China Sea territorial dispute.

Marcos remains a wildly popular leader in the Philippines, and while he maintains a sometimes shaky working alliance with Duterte – whose daughter, Sara, is the vice president – his embrace of Washington is one area where he and his still-influential predecessor tend to diverge.

Senator Francis Tolentino, a member of Duterte’s PDP-Laban party, called the visit a step toward maintaining “a more stable, peaceful, progressive Indo-Pacific region.”

Senator Imee Marcos, the president’s older sister and a close ally of Duterte, welcomed his visit to China, calling the former leader “an invaluable asset to the dialogue” and stating her hope that he would “help us unravel the many troubles we had in the recent past.”

Duterte had previously warned that the Philippines could become a “graveyard” if it became too involved in U.S.-China tensions.

While the vast majority of Filipinos support closer ties with the United States and are wary of Beijing, there is significant domestic debate over the country’s role should conflict break out over the South China Sea or Taiwan.

Duterte and his political allies, including sitting senators and regional governors, have publicly questioned any steps toward a deeper military alliance with the United States, citing fears that the U.S. could station troops and military equipment in the Philippines during a conflict with China, therefore making the Philippines a potential target.

Marcos has acknowledged that granting the U.S. access to the four additional military bases — three of which are in northern Luzon, close to the Taiwan Strait — would be “useful” to Washington if China were to attack Taiwan.

But domestically, he’s been careful to moderate what he says about China and has offered few details about the scope of U.S.-Philippines cooperation should a war or other conflict break out in the region.

During his annual State of the Nation address last month, Marcos did not mention the Philippine claim over disputed territories in the South China Sea. Instead, he touted the country’s “independent foreign policy – a friend to all and an enemy to none.”

Whatever his motive for inviting Duterte to China, Xi certainly wants Marcos to remember that his influence in domestic Philippine politics won’t disappear overnight – and Marcos has surely received the message.