[{"_1":2,"_340":-5,"_341":-5},"loaderData",{"_3":4,"_16":17,"_338":339},"root",{"_5":6,"_14":15},"fb",{"_7":8,"_9":10,"_11":12,"_13":8},"apiKey","AIzaSyAdxqOaB63feHHqSm_nZCKsSHpSAcxkct8","authDomain","thediplomat.firebaseapp.com","projectId","firebase-thediplomat","appId","ga",true,"routes/$issue",{"_18":19,"_20":21,"_22":23},"slug","2024-01","path","/2024-01","issue",{"_24":25,"_26":27,"_28":29,"_30":31,"_32":33,"_34":35,"_36":37,"_38":39,"_40":41,"_42":43},"eid","-NmFBghmbZMECWV5Ly9q","title","2024: What to Expect","description","Welcome to the January 2024 issue of The Diplomat. To start out the new year, our cover story identifies major events and trends to watch for throughout the Asia-Pacific in 2024. We also examine the diverging fates of the Japan-Korea-U.S. and China-Japan-Korea trilaterals, preview Indonesia’s pivotal presidential election, and take stock of the intertwined climate, water, and agricultural woes plaguing Central Asia. And, of course, we offer a range of reporting, analysis, and opinion from across the region.","masthead","

\n Publisher\n Diplomat Media, Inc.
\n 3033 Wilson Blvd
\n Suite 700
\n Arlington, VA 22201
\n United States of America\n

\n Publisher\n James Pach\n

\n Editor-in-Chief\n Shannon Tiezzi\n

\n Managing Editor\n Catherine Putz\n

\n Southeast Asia Editor\n Sebastian Strangio\n

\n South Asia Editor\n Sudha Ramachandran\n

\n Contributing Editors\nAbdul Basit
\nSnigdhendu Bhattacharya
\nDechlan Brennan
\nKavita Chowdhury
\nShanthie Mariet D’Souza
\nMimrah Abdul Ghafoor
\nBonnie Girard
\nShihoko Goto
\nJames Guild
\nMubashar Hasan
\nBrian Hioe
\nLuke Hunt
\nUmair Jamal
\nAisyah Llewellyn
\nMercy A. Kuo
\nRathindra Kuruwita
\nPatricia O’Brien
\nMong Palatino
\nSantosh Sharma Poudel
\nRajeswari Pillai Rajagopalan
\nTita Sanglee
\nSribala Subramanian
\nThisanka Siripala
\nPaolo Sorbello
\nTroy Stangarone
\nTakahashi Kosuke
\nColleen Wood
\nGrant Wyeth\n

","number",110,"date","January 2024","month",1,"year",2024,"status","rdy","toc",[44,60,68,88,98,128,158,188,218,248,273,293,318],{"_24":45,"_46":47,"_26":48,"_49":50},"LTR","priority",0,"Letter","pages",[51],{"_24":52,"_53":54,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":47,"_18":58,"_40":41,"_26":59},"-NmFBhreuoRknect8H3b","lead","

2023 was a geopolitical rollercoaster ride. What’s in store for the Asia-Pacific in 2024?

","model","story","preview","letter-from-the-editors","Letter from the Editors",{"_24":61,"_46":37,"_26":62,"_49":63},"CVRS","Cover Story",[64],{"_24":65,"_53":66,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":47,"_18":67,"_40":41,"_26":27},"-NmFBhrisHjisIQ7hzrQ","

Welcome to the new year, and to our annual primer on what to expect in the Asia-Pacific.

","2024-what-to-expect",{"_24":69,"_46":70,"_26":71,"_49":72},"LDS",2,"Leads",[73,78,83],{"_24":74,"_53":75,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":47,"_18":76,"_40":41,"_26":77},"-NmFBhs-oEWugZf6jAA0","

The diverging fates of two trilaterals encapsulate the latest geopolitical developments in Northeast Asia.

","contrasting-trilaterals-south-koreas-summitry-dilemma","Contrasting Trilaterals: South Korea’s Summitry Dilemma",{"_24":79,"_53":80,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":37,"_18":81,"_40":41,"_26":82},"-NmFBhs0M9osYk9floYT","

As Prabowo’s remarkable rise from disgraced exile to likely next president attests, in Indonesia things once thought buried can yet rise again.

","a-litmus-test-for-indonesian-democracy","A Litmus Test for Indonesian Democracy",{"_24":84,"_53":85,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":70,"_18":86,"_40":41,"_26":87},"-NmFBhs0M9osYk9floYU","

What will it take for Central Asian states to sustainably adapt to climate change, particularly the regional water crisis that is already underway.

","central-asias-water-crisis-is-already-here","Central Asia’s Water Crisis Is Already Here",{"_24":89,"_46":90,"_26":91,"_49":92},"INT",3,"Interview",[93],{"_24":94,"_53":95,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":47,"_18":96,"_40":41,"_26":97},"-NmFBhs1GVtL859ULqp3","

“China has been harassing Philippine resupply missions for more than a decade and has been steadily increasing the intensity of their coercive tactics for at least the last five years.”

","gregory-poling","Gregory Poling",{"_24":99,"_46":100,"_26":101,"_49":102},"CHN",4,"China",[103,108,113,118,123],{"_24":104,"_53":105,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":47,"_18":106,"_40":41,"_26":107},"-NmFBhs2QKKv0Jcoe3G7","

China’s diplomacy is all based on “Xi Jinping Thought,” but the man himself is less and less involved.

","who-will-be-the-face-of-chinas-diplomacy","Who Will Be the Face of China’s Diplomacy?",{"_24":109,"_53":110,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":37,"_18":111,"_40":41,"_26":112},"-NmFBhs2QKKv0Jcoe3G8","

After resuming diplomatic ties in 2021, the relationship got off to a slow start but has recently picked up steam.

","chinas-growing-strategic-position-in-nicaragua","China’s Growing Strategic Position in Nicaragua",{"_24":114,"_53":115,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":70,"_18":116,"_40":41,"_26":117},"-NmFBhs2QKKv0Jcoe3G9","

China’s signals that its economy is open for business and tourism are increasingly urgent, but will they be effective?

","is-china-open-for-business-again","Is China Open for Business Again?",{"_24":119,"_53":120,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":90,"_18":121,"_40":41,"_26":122},"-NmFBhs3AErbcZvCl0te","

Beijing is contrasting its approach with Washington’s in a bid to win favor from the Gulf states – while still treading cautiously.

","understanding-chinas-position-on-the-israel-palestine-conflict","Understanding China’s Position on the Israel-Palestine Conflict",{"_24":124,"_53":125,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":100,"_18":126,"_40":41,"_26":127},"-NmFBhs4IsqV5Yd4qKK0","

There has been an increased number of reports on espionage plots and disinformation campaigns, and Taiwan’s government is eager to show it is taking action.

","as-taiwans-election-nears-chinas-espionage-interference-attempts-come-under-scrutiny","As Taiwan’s Election Nears, China’s Espionage, Interference Attempts Come Under Scrutiny",{"_24":129,"_46":130,"_26":131,"_49":132},"NEA",5,"Northeast Asia",[133,138,143,148,153],{"_24":134,"_53":135,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":47,"_18":136,"_40":41,"_26":137},"-NmFBhs4IsqV5Yd4qKK1","

Japan's Self-Defense Forces have been rocked by a high-profile sexual harassment case, which threatens to undermine the force in charge of national defense.

","japans-defense-force-has-a-sexual-harassment-problem","Japan’s Defense Force Has a Sexual Harassment Problem",{"_24":139,"_53":140,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":37,"_18":141,"_40":41,"_26":142},"-NmFBhs4IsqV5Yd4qKK2","

A recap of his track record at home and abroad.

","a-tough-year-for-south-koreas-president-yoon","A Tough Year for South Korea’s President Yoon",{"_24":144,"_53":145,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":70,"_18":146,"_40":41,"_26":147},"-NmFBhs50ADtK3cmaDcQ","

In its response to recent events in Afghanistan, Myanmar, and Ukraine, Japan has demonstrated greater flexibility in admitting those needing refuge.

","moving-beyond-checkbook-diplomacy-japans-changing-refugee-policy","Moving Beyond ‘Checkbook Diplomacy’? Japan’s Changing Refugee Policy",{"_24":149,"_53":150,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":90,"_18":151,"_40":41,"_26":152},"-NmFBhs50ADtK3cmaDcR","

The longtime LDP leader has never won the top office, in part because of the pragmatic approach that makes him popular with the public.

","the-engaging-outsider-can-ishiba-shigerus-iconoclastic-policies-gain-traction","The Engaging Outsider: Can Ishiba Shigeru’s Iconoclastic Policies Gain Traction?",{"_24":154,"_53":155,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":100,"_18":156,"_40":41,"_26":157},"-NmFBhs6lkqAVCsX55Uu","

Drawing the wrong lessons from the end of the Korean War hinders a useful assessment of deterrence in the original Cold War.

","the-use-and-misuse-of-history-what-should-we-learn-from-the-korean-war","The Use and Misuse of History: What Should We Learn From the Korean War?",{"_24":159,"_46":160,"_26":161,"_49":162},"SOA",6,"South Asia",[163,168,173,178,183],{"_24":164,"_53":165,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":47,"_18":166,"_40":41,"_26":167},"-NmFBhs6lkqAVCsX55Uv","

Although almost 80 percent of live organ donors are women, they comprise just 18.9 percent of recipients.

","patriarchal-mindsets-impact-live-organ-transplants-in-india","Patriarchal Mindsets Impact Live Organ Transplants in India",{"_24":169,"_53":170,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":37,"_18":171,"_40":41,"_26":172},"-NmFBhs7nzlpM1OI7V0B","

The 2024 elections are allegedly being managed for the PML-N’s Nawaz Sharif as they were for the PTI’s Imran Khan in 2018.

","its-deja-vu-in-pakistan-as-the-country-heads-toward-elections","It’s Déjà Vu in Pakistan, as the Country Heads Toward Elections",{"_24":174,"_53":175,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":70,"_18":176,"_40":41,"_26":177},"-NmFBhs7nzlpM1OI7V0C","

The animosity between the two former allies resembles the tensions that arose between former Presidents Mohamed Nasheed and Ibrahim Solih during the latter’s presidency.

","rift-between-muizzu-and-yameen-injects-fresh-tensions-into-maldives-politics","Rift Between Muizzu and Yameen Injects Fresh Tensions Into Maldives’ Politics",{"_24":179,"_53":180,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":90,"_18":181,"_40":41,"_26":182},"-NmFBhs7nzlpM1OI7V0D","

While the canal project is a source of promise, it faces many challenges, not the least of which is unease in Central Asia about water security.

","the-qosh-tepa-canal-a-source-of-hope-in-afghanistan","The Qosh Tepa Canal: A Source of Hope in Afghanistan",{"_24":184,"_53":185,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":100,"_18":186,"_40":41,"_26":187},"-NmFBhs8PGhvS2-2ACSN","

PM Puspa Kamal Dahal has been unable to prevent Nepalis from enlisting to fight in Russia’s war in Ukraine.

","as-former-maoist-combatants-join-russian-forces-nepals-maoist-pm-is-in-a-quandary","As Former Maoist Combatants Join Russian Forces, Nepal’s Maoist PM Is in a Quandary",{"_24":189,"_46":190,"_26":191,"_49":192},"SEA",7,"Southeast Asia",[193,198,203,208,213],{"_24":194,"_53":195,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":47,"_18":196,"_40":41,"_26":197},"-NmFBhs8PGhvS2-2ACSO","

The worsening humanitarian and security situation in the camps where Rohingya have lived in limbo for more than six years has pushed many to seek asylum by sea.

","the-rohingya-a-forgotten-and-friendless-people","The Rohingya: A Forgotten and Friendless People",{"_24":199,"_53":200,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":37,"_18":201,"_40":41,"_26":202},"-NmFBhs8PGhvS2-2ACSP","

Calls for ASEAN member states to extend minilateral cooperation into the security realm could entail hefty costs.

","the-perils-of-overstretching-minilateral-cooperation-within-asean","The Perils of Overstretching Minilateral Cooperation Within ASEAN",{"_24":204,"_53":205,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":70,"_18":206,"_40":41,"_26":207},"-NmFBhs9HUd8cogVpTzx","

President Joko Widodo’s new capital is struggling to attract foreign investors. Will it survive beyond next year’s election?

","where-indonesias-presidential-candidates-stand-on-the-new-capital-project","Where Indonesia’s Presidential Candidates Stand On the New Capital Project",{"_24":209,"_53":210,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":90,"_18":211,"_40":41,"_26":212},"-NmFBhs9HUd8cogVpTzy","

The Malaysian leader has increased his country’s diplomatic focus on ASEAN and the Middle East, while balancing between the major powers.

","the-first-year-of-malaysias-foreign-policy-under-anwar-ibrahim","The First Year of Malaysia’s Foreign Policy Under Anwar Ibrahim",{"_24":214,"_53":215,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":100,"_18":216,"_40":41,"_26":217},"-NmFBhs9HUd8cogVpTzz","

Few Timorese would have welcomed the late diplomat with open arms. Fewer still will be sad to see him gone.

","henry-kissinger-and-the-murder-of-timor-leste","Henry Kissinger and the Murder of Timor-Leste",{"_24":219,"_46":220,"_26":221,"_49":222},"CEA",8,"Central Asia",[223,228,233,238,243],{"_24":224,"_53":225,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":47,"_18":226,"_40":41,"_26":227},"-NmFBhsAZeE1PPLYGWml","

As 2023 ended, the war on crime was just heating up in Central Asia, with campaigns in both Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan taking aim at criminal networks.

","central-asias-war-on-the-mob","Central Asia’s War on the Mob",{"_24":229,"_53":230,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":37,"_18":231,"_40":41,"_26":232},"-NmFBhsAZeE1PPLYGWmm","

It’s been a busy year for Central Asia, with numerous Western diplomats swinging through the region or welcoming Central Asian delegations in their own capitals.

","the-west-is-eying-closer-relations-with-central-asia","The West Is Eying Closer Relations With Central Asia",{"_24":234,"_53":235,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":70,"_18":236,"_40":41,"_26":237},"-NmFBhsBtmRcgGgXpJ57","

Europe is pushing hard to advance the Middle Corridor, but other countries like China, Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan will almost certainly benefit from the infrastructure being built.

","why-the-middle-corridor-is-a-double-edged-sword","Why the Middle Corridor Is a Double-Edged Sword",{"_24":239,"_53":240,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":90,"_18":241,"_40":41,"_26":242},"-NmFBhsBtmRcgGgXpJ58","

Why does the energy-rich region experience such frequent power and heating failures?

","central-asias-great-energy-paradox","Central Asia’s Great Energy Paradox",{"_24":244,"_53":245,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":100,"_18":246,"_40":41,"_26":247},"-NmFBhsBtmRcgGgXpJ59","

Kyrgyz and Tajik officials say they’re close to agreement on the entirety of their long-disputed border.

","big-promises-on-the-kyrgyz-tajik-border","Big Promises on the Kyrgyz-Tajik Border",{"_24":249,"_46":250,"_26":251,"_49":252},"OCE",9,"Oceania",[253,258,263,268],{"_24":254,"_53":255,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":47,"_18":256,"_40":41,"_26":257},"-NmFBhsCeYEYTEKfdDO1","

The longer the conflict progresses the more likely that internal divisions within Australia over the issue will persist. Canberra’s position will shift accordingly.

","australias-changing-view-of-the-israel-gaza-conflict","Australia’s Changing View of the Israel-Gaza Conflict",{"_24":259,"_53":260,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":37,"_18":261,"_40":41,"_26":262},"-NmFBhsCeYEYTEKfdDO2","

The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), including the Pacific countries, was not present when the final text of the Global Stocktake was passed.

","pacific-island-countries-blindsided-in-climate-conference","Pacific Island Countries Blindsided in Climate Conference",{"_24":264,"_53":265,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":70,"_18":266,"_40":41,"_26":267},"-NmFBhsCeYEYTEKfdDO3","

Security cooperation with China and Australia is far from a zero-sum game for Pacific Island countries.

","seesawing-security-diplomacy-in-the-pacific","Seesawing Security Diplomacy in the Pacific",{"_24":269,"_53":270,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":90,"_18":271,"_40":41,"_26":272},"-NmFBhsDJKc-0nRHG_y9","

The new government’s foreign policy priorities could jeopardize New Zealand’s relationships with Pacific Island countries.

","new-zealand-abandons-indigenous-rights-and-pacific-priorities-in-foreign-policy","New Zealand Abandons Indigenous Rights and Pacific Priorities in Foreign Policy",{"_24":274,"_46":275,"_26":276,"_49":277},"USA",10,"US in Asia",[278,283,288],{"_24":279,"_53":280,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":47,"_18":281,"_40":41,"_26":282},"-NmFBhsENEvFZbRbbEON","

There is no clear definition of what the end goal of U.S. strategic competition with China might actually look like.

","washingtons-lopsided-approach-to-competition-with-china","Washington’s Lopsided Approach to Competition With China",{"_24":284,"_53":285,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":37,"_18":286,"_40":41,"_26":287},"-NmFBhsENEvFZbRbbEOO","

Washington’s failure in approving the IPEF trade pillar sent a clear message to Asia-Pacific partners. But all is not lost.

","after-apec-whither-us-leadership-on-trade","After APEC: Whither US Leadership on Trade?",{"_24":289,"_53":290,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":70,"_18":291,"_40":41,"_26":292},"-NmFBhsENEvFZbRbbEOP","

Things may look bleak today, but it’s a far cry from the era of zero contact in the 1950s and ‘60s.

","the-history-and-future-of-china-studies-in-the-us","The History and Future of China Studies in the US",{"_24":294,"_46":295,"_26":296,"_49":297},"SCR",11,"Security",[298,303,308,313],{"_24":299,"_53":300,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":47,"_18":301,"_40":41,"_26":302},"-NmFBhsF4bAhHgzJv4DD","

Japan is expediting deployment of upgraded Type 12 missiles to deter China and North Korea.

","japans-standoff-missiles-are-coming-a-year-early","Japan’s Standoff Missiles Are Coming a Year Early",{"_24":304,"_53":305,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":37,"_18":306,"_40":41,"_26":307},"-NmFBhsF4bAhHgzJv4DE","

Russia is looking to shore up military partnerships in a critical region, from India to Myanmar.

","the-indian-ocean-is-witnessing-a-surge-in-russian-military-exercises","The Indian Ocean Is Witnessing a Surge in Russian Military Exercises",{"_24":309,"_53":310,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":70,"_18":311,"_40":41,"_26":312},"-NmFBhsGws5RBZSmbhlb","

Pro-Islamic State groups are stepping up attacks, hoping to disrupt the Bangsamoro peace process at a pivotal time.

","the-islamic-states-high-stakes-war-in-the-philippines","The Islamic State’s High Stakes War in the Philippines",{"_24":314,"_53":315,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":90,"_18":316,"_40":41,"_26":317},"-NmFBhsGws5RBZSmbhlc","

The Pentagon is betting big on unmanned systems in a conflict with China – but the Russia-Ukraine war is showing the limited utility of such systems.

","is-the-us-military-learning-the-wrong-lessons-about-drones","Is the US Military Learning the Wrong Lessons About Drones?",{"_24":319,"_46":320,"_26":321,"_49":322},"ASL",12,"Asia Life",[323,328,333],{"_24":324,"_53":325,"_55":56,"_57":37,"_46":47,"_18":326,"_40":41,"_26":327},"-NmFBhsHqZzG1DHyZ9sj","

“12th Fail” not only shows poor Indians’ aspirations, but also why they are so often pinned on the public service.

","what-a-recent-bollywood-sleeper-hit-tells-us-about-indian-society-and-the-state","What a Recent Bollywood ‘Sleeper Hit’ Tells Us About Indian Society and the State",{"_24":329,"_53":330,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":37,"_18":331,"_40":41,"_26":332},"-NmFBhsHqZzG1DHyZ9sk","

The order by the Supreme Court is interim, and the registration is temporary. Nepal has still a long way to go.

","nepal-registers-first-same-sex-marriage","Nepal Registers First Same-Sex Marriage",{"_24":334,"_53":335,"_55":56,"_57":47,"_46":70,"_18":336,"_40":41,"_26":337},"-NmFBhsHqZzG1DHyZ9sl","

The eruption of Mount Marapi in West Sumatra on December 3 claimed the lives of 23 people.

","indonesias-volcanoes-are-famous-but-is-there-a-way-to-make-them-safer","Indonesia’s Volcanoes Are Famous, But Is There a Way to Make Them Safer?","routes/$issue.cover",{"_18":19,"_20":21,"_22":23},"actionData","errors"]