2024: What to Expect

2023 was a geopolitical rollercoaster ride. What’s in store for the Asia-Pacific in 2024?

Welcome to the new year, and to our annual primer on what to expect in the Asia-Pacific.

The diverging fates of two trilaterals encapsulate the latest geopolitical developments in Northeast Asia.

As Prabowo’s remarkable rise from disgraced exile to likely next president attests, in Indonesia things once thought buried can yet rise again.

What will it take for Central Asian states to sustainably adapt to climate change, particularly the regional water crisis that is already underway.

“China has been harassing Philippine resupply missions for more than a decade and has been steadily increasing the intensity of their coercive tactics for at least the last five years.”

China’s diplomacy is all based on “Xi Jinping Thought,” but the man himself is less and less involved.

After resuming diplomatic ties in 2021, the relationship got off to a slow start but has recently picked up steam.

China’s signals that its economy is open for business and tourism are increasingly urgent, but will they be effective?

Beijing is contrasting its approach with Washington’s in a bid to win favor from the Gulf states – while still treading cautiously.

There has been an increased number of reports on espionage plots and disinformation campaigns, and Taiwan’s government is eager to show it is taking action.

Japan's Self-Defense Forces have been rocked by a high-profile sexual harassment case, which threatens to undermine the force in charge of national defense. 

A recap of his track record at home and abroad.

In its response to recent events in Afghanistan, Myanmar, and Ukraine, Japan has demonstrated greater flexibility in admitting those needing refuge.

The longtime LDP leader has never won the top office, in part because of the pragmatic approach that makes him popular with the public.

Drawing the wrong lessons from the end of the Korean War hinders a useful assessment of deterrence in the original Cold War.

Although almost 80 percent of live organ donors are women, they comprise just 18.9 percent of recipients.

The 2024 elections are allegedly being managed for the PML-N’s Nawaz Sharif as they were for the PTI’s Imran Khan in 2018.

The animosity between the two former allies resembles the tensions that arose between former Presidents Mohamed Nasheed and Ibrahim Solih during the latter’s presidency.

While the canal project is a source of promise, it faces many challenges, not the least of which is unease in Central Asia about water security. 

PM Puspa Kamal Dahal has been unable to prevent Nepalis from enlisting to fight in Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The worsening humanitarian and security situation in the camps where Rohingya have lived in limbo for more than six years has pushed many to seek asylum by sea.

Calls for ASEAN member states to extend minilateral cooperation into the security realm could entail hefty costs.

President Joko Widodo’s new capital is struggling to attract foreign investors. Will it survive beyond next year’s election?

The Malaysian leader has increased his country’s diplomatic focus on ASEAN and the Middle East, while balancing between the major powers.

Few Timorese would have welcomed the late diplomat with open arms. Fewer still will be sad to see him gone.

As 2023 ended, the war on crime was just heating up in Central Asia, with campaigns in both Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan taking aim at criminal networks.

It’s been a busy year for Central Asia, with numerous Western diplomats swinging through the region or welcoming Central Asian delegations in their own capitals.

Europe is pushing hard to advance the Middle Corridor, but other countries like China, Russia, Iran, and Azerbaijan will almost certainly benefit from the infrastructure being built.

Why does the energy-rich region experience such frequent power and heating failures?

Kyrgyz and Tajik officials say they’re close to agreement on the entirety of their long-disputed border.

The longer the conflict progresses the more likely that internal divisions within Australia over the issue will persist. Canberra’s position will shift accordingly. 

The Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS), including the Pacific countries, was not present when the final text of the Global Stocktake was passed.

Security cooperation with China and Australia is far from a zero-sum game for Pacific Island countries.

The new government’s foreign policy priorities could jeopardize New Zealand’s relationships with Pacific Island countries. 

There is no clear definition of what the end goal of U.S. strategic competition with China might actually look like.

Washington’s failure in approving the IPEF trade pillar sent a clear message to Asia-Pacific partners. But all is not lost. 

Things may look bleak today, but it’s a far cry from the era of zero contact in the 1950s and ‘60s.

Japan is expediting deployment of upgraded Type 12 missiles to deter China and North Korea.

Russia is looking to shore up military partnerships in a critical region, from India to Myanmar.

Pro-Islamic State groups are stepping up attacks, hoping to disrupt the Bangsamoro peace process at a pivotal time.

The Pentagon is betting big on unmanned systems in a conflict with China – but the Russia-Ukraine war is showing the limited utility of such systems.

“12th Fail” not only shows poor Indians’ aspirations, but also why they are so often pinned on the public service.

The order by the Supreme Court is interim, and the registration is temporary. Nepal has still a long way to go.

The eruption of Mount Marapi in West Sumatra on December 3 claimed the lives of 23 people.