Japan’s Standoff Missiles Are Coming a Year Early

Japan is accelerating the development of homegrown standoff missiles as it grows more concerned about China’s rapid military build-up and assertiveness, as well as North Korea’s evolving nuclear and missile threats.

On December 15, Japan’s Defense Minister Kihara Minoru announced that the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force (JGSDF) will deploy an improved variant of the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI)-developed Type 12 surface-to-ship missile (SSM) starting in fiscal year (FY) 2025, a year earlier than originally planned.

“This acceleration reflects Japan's sense of urgency to acquire practical standoff defense capabilities as soon as possible,” Kihara said at a press conference on the same day.

Standoff missiles enable Japan to attack sites such as enemy missile bases from outside the enemy’s range without compromising the safety of Self-Defense Forces personnel. Japan’s current standoff missile capability is mainly focused on the upgraded Type 12 SSM, which is the core of Japan’s counterattack ability.

Tokyo has been developing an upgraded version of the ground-launched Type 12 system since FY2021. The upgraded missile with have its firing range extended from the current limit of about 200 kilometers to over 1,000 kilometers. Initially, it was scheduled to be deployed as early as FY2026; now that schedule is being accelerated.

Japan’s Defense Ministry is promoting the deployment of JGSDF missile units in the Nansei chain of islands in the country’s southwest, as well as in Yufuin, Oita Prefecture, on the southwestern island of Kyushu, mainly to counter China’s increasing military activities. The longer-range Type 12 SSMs are expected to be deployed on those islands in the future as Japan plans to acquire counterattack capabilities to strike enemy bases.

While the original Type 12 SSM was designed as a land-based anti-ship missile, the upgraded variant can be launched not only from land, but also from aircraft and surface combatants. The Defense Ministry originally planned to develop a ship-launched version of the upgraded Type 12 SSM by FY2026 and its air-launched version by FY2028, but Kihara said the ministry is now considering moving up those schedules as well.

In April 2023, the ministry announced that it had signed four contracts worth about 378.1 billion yen ($2.65 billion) with MHI to develop and mass-produce upgraded Type 12 SSMs and develop new submarine-launched standoff missiles. The new missiles are aimed at urgently strengthening Japan’s deterrence and response capabilities against China and North Korea.

In addition, on October 4, Kihara announced that Tokyo will acquire hundreds of U.S.-made Tomahawk cruise missiles as early as FY2025, also moving up the original schedule by one year, amid deteriorating security conditions in the region.

These latest moves come as many Japanese policymakers and experts are worried that Chinese leaders may be intending to use military force against Taiwan, perhaps within a few years. 

Taiwan’s presidential election is scheduled for January 13, 2024. If Vice President William Lai, the candidate of the ruling pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party, wins in the election, he could continue as Taiwan’s president until 2032. Every Taiwanese president has served two four-year terms since 2000.

China’s President Xi Jinping will be nearly 80 years old in 2032. It is widely believe that Xi wants to cement his legacy as a greater leader than Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping by achieving the unification of China and Taiwan. Mao founded China’s communist state in 1949 and led the country for more than two decades, while Deng paved the way for the return of Hong Kong and China’s so-called economic miracle.

Precisely because there is not much time left for Xi, there is a widespread view that if Lai is elected president, the risk of war with China will increase, thus prompting Japan to prepare for the worst-case scenario.