After Attacks, Pakistan Quickly Patches Up Relations With Iran

On January 16, Iran launched a series of drone and missile attacks against alleged terrorist bases located in the Pakistani border region of Balochistan. Iran justified these strikes by claiming that militants there posed an imminent threat to its security, leading Iran’s military to take preemptive action in self-defense.

Pakistan reacted strongly to what it deemed “the unprovoked violation of its airspace.” Two days after the Iranian strikes, Pakistan carried out counterstrikes targeting seven different locations, allegedly bases for Pakistani Baloch militant groups based in Iran.

However, Pakistan quickly announced an end to the military standoff with Iran and took a step toward re-establishing full diplomatic relations with the country.

“The two countries would mutually be able to overcome minor irritants through dialogue and diplomacy and pave the way to further deepen their historic relations,” the Pakistani National Security Committee, which is headed by caretaker Prime Minister Anwaar-ul-Haq Kakar, said soon after the Pakistan military targeted Baloch militants’ sanctuaries in Iran.

Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Jalil Abbas Jilani also extended an invitation to his Iranian counterpart, Hossein Amirabdollahian, to visit Islamabad, which Amirabdollahian did on January 29.

The Iran-Pakistan tit-for-tat military strikes resulted in a swift fraying of bilateral relations, which raised significant concerns in the international community. There were apprehensions that the strikes, which came amid the Gaza-Israel crisis, could further escalate tensions in the region.

Pakistan was caught off guard by Iran's violation of its territory. But in the hours immediately after Iran's attack, Islamabad seemed to want to avoid entering into a tit-for-tat with Tehran. Previously, when Iran has attacked alleged militant sites in Pakistan, Islamabad has refrained from retaliating, sticking to diplomatic protests and requests for collaboration.

Similarly, in the current situation, by giving Iran some time to come up with an explanation for its actions, Pakistan hoped to create an opportunity for dialogue and reduce tensions between the two nations.

However, in the eyes of Pakistani policymakers, Iran failed to offer a satisfactory explanation for its strike and even doubled down on its justification for its actions. This forced Pakistan into a difficult position where it had to balance increasing domestic pressure and volatile borders while ensuring that it did not make any mistakes that could further escalate the situation.

Amid mounting pressure and Iran’s apparent disinterest in conciliation, Pakistan struck back. However, it did so with restraint and caution to avoid any unnecessary escalation or mistakes that could potentially lead to greater conflict.

Meanwhile, Iran displayed its willingness to resolve the situation peacefully by acknowledging that those killed by Pakistan’s strike were Pakistani nationals, not Iranians – tacitly admitting to Pakistan’s rationale for the strike. In referring to Pakistan as a brotherly country, Tehran sent a clear message that it did not intend to escalate matters militarily.

It is plausible that Pakistan communicated to Iran that it had no choice but to retaliate given domestic pressures, but also that it would select a target that could allow space for communication between the two countries.

Amid these tensions, both Iran and Pakistan declared they were simply fighting terrorists and pledged to respect one another's territorial integrity and sovereignty.

Pakistan’s approach was driven by an understanding of the challenges Iran faces in the region, particularly due to the ongoing Gaza-Israel conflict. For instance, Pakistan refrained from boasting about its military actions because it understood that scoring cheap points in that way would further enrage Iran, which has recently lost several senior commanders to insurgent attacks and Israeli strikes in the Middle East. While Pakistan saw military action as necessary to both relieve domestic pressure and restore deterrence, soon after conducting its strike Islamabad extended an olive branch of reconciliation to Iran.

Pakistan’s decision to patch up relations with Iran highlights the intricate security challenges faced by both countries along their border. For decades, militants have operated in the area, posing a threat to the stability and security of both nations. However, despite these challenges, Pakistan and Iran have managed to develop ways of cooperation that allow them to mutually avoid conflict and opt for dialogue.

Pakistan’s decision to prioritize cooperation with Iran is driven by a deep understanding that engaging in a war with Iran at a time when its borders with Afghanistan and India are under pressure would not yield any benefits. Instead, Pakistan recognizes the need for stability and economic growth within its own borders. With a struggling economy, it is clear that Pakistan stands to gain more from fostering cooperative measures with its neighbor to the west.

Overall, the initial worrying signs of escalation between Iran and Pakistan turned into a lesson in crisis management instead. The emphasis on respect for territorial integrity and sovereignty could actually set a promising foundation for future collaborations in various sectors.