Amid Ram Temple Fervor Sweeping India, What Are the Congress Party’s Electoral Chances?

On January 14, Congress Party leader Rahul Gandhi set off on his second cross-country march, this time from Imphal, the capital of the troubled northeastern Indian state of Manipur. The “Bharat Jodo Nyay Yatra” (BJNY) or “Unite India Justice March,” which is scheduled to cover 6,713 kilometers in a little over two months, will pass through 110 districts in 15 states before culminating in Mumbai on India’s west coast.

This is the second time in two years that the Congress, India’s main opposition party, is undertaking a long march to connect with the masses and engage in ground-level mobilization.

In late 2022, Gandhi led the “Bharat Jodo Yatra,” (BJY), or “Unite India March,” from Kanyakumari, the southernmost tip of India, to Srinagar in Jammu and Kashmir. That march, which spanned a distance of 3,570 kilometers across 12 states, took five months. It focused on the need for inclusiveness in India, which under the Narendra Modi government is riven by communal divisions.

The BJNY’s focus is on “providing economic, social, and political justice to people,” and is expected to set the stage for the Congress’ campaign in the general elections that are likely to be held in April-May. The question is whether it will prove rewarding in terms of votes.

Gandhi’s 2022-23 march brought mixed results. The Congress leader was once widely perceived as a disinterested and part-time politician, but the march gave him an image makeover. Indians saw sensitivity, stamina, and commitment in him.

The strong support the march drew along its route rejuvenated the Congress party’s demoralized cadres and also played a role in its victories in state assembly elections in Karnataka and Telangana in southern India. However, the Congress performed poorly in state assembly elections in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, although the BJY route traversed districts there as well.

This time, the challenges that Gandhi and the BJNY face are far more formidable.

The march will traverse Uttar Pradesh. A stronghold of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Uttar Pradesh accounts for a fifth of the seats in the lower house of India’s Parliament. The Congress’ presence and influence in this electorally crucial state have declined precipitously since the early 1980s; in the 2019 general election, the party won just one of 80 seats in the state.

The BJNY is also taking place amid celebrations across the country over the inauguration of the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya on January 22. With the BJP making political capital out of the temple’s inauguration, there has been a surge in support for Hindutva politics. A pro-Modi frenzy is sweeping the country.

Amid this, the Congress and several other opposition parties decided to stay away from the temple inauguration. “Religion is a personal matter. But the RSS / BJP have long made a political project of the temple in Ayodhya,” the Congress said in a statement explaining its decision. It slammed the BJP for using the event to boost its election prospects.

The BJP was swift in depicting the Congress’ decision to stay away from the consecration of the Ram idol as “anti-Hindu.”

On the face of it, the Congress appears to have blundered by not participating in the Ram Mandir inauguration. It could cost the party dearly among Hindu voters.

However, as an editorial in The Telegraph, an English daily from Kolkata, pointed out, “It would be naïve to suggest that the Congress is unaware of the political risks of the decision. In fact, there may even be some wisdom to it.”

The Congress may have realized that its adoption of a “soft Hindutva” strategy to counter the BJP’s “hard Hindutva” has not been effective. It impressed neither Hindu nor Muslim voters, and the Congress ended up falling between them. In fact, in trying to court Hindu voters, Congress turned Muslim voters away from the party, resulting in other parties like the Samajwadi Party (SP) pulling in Muslim votes, at the expense of the Congress. Meanwhile, Hindu voters stayed strongly behind the BJP.

That its “soft Hindutva” strategy was unrewarding was underscored again as recently as last year. The Congress won in Karnataka, where it stood firm against the BJP’s communal politics. In Madhya Pradesh, however, where its state-level leaders engaged in a “soft Hindutva” campaign, the party was wiped out.

So, the Congress’ decision to “politely decline” the BJP’s invitation to the Ram Mandir inauguration just may serve its electoral interests better. Muslims, long tired of the Congress’ failure to stand by them robustly when it mattered, could close ranks behind the party in the upcoming elections.

However, this by itself will not be enough to improve the Congress’ chances. It needs the 28-party opposition INDIA bloc, of which it is a part, to put up a credible fight.

When INDIA was formed, it showed promise. However, in the six months since, the grouping has been in the news more for its infighting than for charting out effective strategies to take on the ruling BJP.

With around a month to go before parties file nominations and set off on election campaigns in earnest, the INDIA grouping has not come up with a shared agenda that goes beyond defeating Modi. The alliance has yet to agree on seat-sharing formulas.

Instead, INDIA partners have been preoccupied with improving their leverage vis-à-vis each other. Over the past six months, the Congress, for instance, dragged its feet on INDIA-related work; it put off meetings with bloc partners on election strategizing. Instead, it focused on contemporary election campaigning as it was hoping that success in these elections would boost its bargaining power inside the INDIA bloc. That hope crashed with its disastrous performance in key Hindi heartland states.

Analysts say that the launch of the BJNY a little over a month before elections are expected is again aimed at improving the Congress’ leverage. Consider this: The longest stretch of the BJNY will be in Uttar Pradesh, where Congress activists will cover a distance of 1,074 km over 11 days. A successful march through Uttar Pradesh will help the Congress bargain harder for more seats. It is aimed at wringing more seats out of the SP in the state, a Congress leader from Karnataka said.

The views of INDIA partners on the BJNY are telling. Neither the Trinamool Congress (TMC), the Janata Dal-United, nor the SP has indicated participation in the march when it crosses the states of West Bengal, Bihar, or Uttar Pradesh, respectively. The TMC will likely contest all seats in West Bengal, which means that if the Congress wishes to contest in the state it will have to fight the TMC as well as the BJP.

Meanwhile, the BJP has everything going for it. With the Ram Temple inauguration, it has successfully whipped up a pro-Hindu and pro-BJP frenzy across India. It has full control over the state machinery and will not hesitate to deploy it to further its interests. Its coffers are overflowing. Further, the opposition will have to contend with Modi’s persisting, indeed growing, popularity, which guarantees the BJP crowds and votes.

The INDIA bloc is running out of time. Its chances of preventing the BJP from winning a third successive term are declining with each day that it fritters away in infighting.