China-Russia Relations Have Surged Forward Since the Ukraine War Began

In early March, Li Hui, China’s special representative on Eurasian affairs, undertook his second round of shuttle diplomacy centered on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Li visited Russia, Poland, Ukraine, Germany, and France, as well as the the European Union headquarters in Brussels, ostensibly to advance China’s quest for “a political settlement of the Ukraine crisis.” But few observers expected any concrete outcomes, largely because China is not seen as a neutral party.

For all its protestations to the contrary, Beijing’s close relationship with Moscow implies China’s backing for Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. While the question of China’s material support for the war is hotly debated, it’s beyond doubt that China’s official line has some prominent similarities with Russia’s stance: laying the blame on NATO expansion, accusing the U.S. and its allies of exacerbating the conflict by helping Ukraine defend itself, and decrying the use of sanctions against Russia.

Ultimately, Chinese officials “are not ready to change their position on Russia and in that sense, it makes them not a credible actor to find any common ground with all of us,” Abigael Vasselier, a former EU official who took part in the last round of talks with Li, told the Associated Press.

Indeed, even while Li was attempting to portray China as a neutral actor during his tour of Europe, his boss, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, was singing the praises of China-Russia relations. Wang presided over the annual foreign minister’s press conference on the sidelines of China’s National People’s Congress in March 2024. Just like in 2023, Russia was the topic of the first country-specific question.

“Political mutual trust is deepening. Cooperation remains mutually beneficial and complementary to each other. The two peoples are enthusiastic about mutual exchanges,” Wang said of the China-Russia relationship. “Last year, bilateral trade reached a record US$240 billion, hitting the target of US$200 billion ahead of schedule. Russian natural gas is fueling numerous Chinese households, and Chinese-made automobiles are running on Russian roads. All this shows the strong resilience and broad prospects of China-Russia mutually beneficial cooperation.”

As Wang’s comments suggest, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has provided further impetus to China-Russia ties, rather than harming the relationship.

The evolution of bilateral trade is a particularly interesting example, as for years the economic side of China-Russia relations has lagged behind strategic and political cooperation. In fact, the two have a long history of missing their targets for trade growth. In 2011, China and Russia set a goal of reaching $100 billion in bilateral trade by 2015 and $200 billion by 2020. Instead, trade just barely topped the $100 billion mark in 2018, and the two quietly moved the goal date for achieving $200 billion in trade turnover back to 2024.

When Wang proudly declared that Sino-Russian trade surpassed $200 billion “ahead of schedule,” he was referring to that revised timeline. From another point of view, the milestone came three years late.

Apparently, what it took to actually jumpstart Sino-Russian trade was Russia’s brutal invasion of a neighboring country. The resulting wave of sanctions gave Moscow fewer options for its energy exports – and provided lucrative opportunities for Chinese companies as Western firms fled the Russian market. The result has been a massive surge in China-Russia trade over the past three years. Trade in goods more than doubled from $104.1 billion in 2020 to $240 billion in 2023.

That is a far cry from the trend in China-Russia trade after Russia seized control of Crimea in 2014. Back then, Western sanctions discouraged trade growth, setting China-Russia trade back. The additional sanctions from the U.S. and Europe in 2022, by contrast, only super-charged China-Russia trade volumes.