Sandeep Shastri

India’s much-anticipated general elections are set to run from April 19 to June 1, 2024. During those 44 days, Indians will cast their ballots to determine whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) receive a third consecutive term in power – something that most analysts expect to happen. Despite a much-ballyhooed opposition alliance – with the catchy name of INDIA, short for the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance – the coalition has never fully meshed.

What will be foremost on the minds of Indian voters as they head to the polls, and how healthy is India’s democracy as it increasingly heads toward one-party rule? The Diplomat discussed these issues with Dr. Sandeep Shastri, a political scientist who is the pro vice chancellor of the Jain University and director of its Centre for Research in Social Sciences and Education (CERSSE).

Shastri noted that both Hindutva and caste identities play a role in determining voter choices, but so do economic concerns. However, “economic factors seem to have greater salience when it comes to state elections than national elections,” he said.

While the inauguration of the Ram temple in January created much religious fervor in India, how important is it likely to be in influencing voter decisions?

The launch of the temple with the installation of the idol of Lord Rama was carried out with tremendous fanfare and fervor. The timing of this event was politically significant as it was a few months prior to the nation going to polls.

The political buzz around the event has been clear and visible. The BJP has clearly highlighted the fact that this was one of the key agendas of the party and the same stands fulfilled. However, those who support the BJP on this issue were already with the party. Support on this factor peaked in the 2019 elections, and there seems to be limited scope for more support to be garnered on this issue.

What the BJP could best do is consolidate and strengthen the already committed voters. Further, especially in the Hindi heartland where the BJP has managed an impressive electoral performance in the last two elections (2014 and 2019) the launch of the temple may help the BJP to make up for any loss of support on account of any anti-incumbency caused by being in power for 10 years (and some of its Members of Parliament having completed more than two terms).

How important is caste in determining voter choices in India today? Or is Hindutva erasing caste identities and rivalries?

Caste is a factor but not the factor. It is part of the basket of factors that play a key role. The promoters of Hindutva would well like it to be an overarching identity subsuming caste identities. Yet this does not seem to have happened as the BJP itself continues to focus on caste and caste identities when taking key political decisions. It has even projected its leadership as representing the Backward Castes.

Again, the emphasis and importance of caste as a factor varies from state to state. It also has a role in aligning with other factors that have electoral salience like class, unity, nationalism, regionalism, and the like. 

Is the economic situation in India, including rising unemployment and prices, an important issue in the elections?

Over the last two decades, all surveys have consistently pointed out that people view unemployment and rising prices as among the top challenges faced. They would list the above two as being important issues in the elections.

Three points would need to be borne in mind in this context. First, while voters do see their personal economic situation as being important, they would also have a perception on who is best suited to resolve the challenge. If they vote back a ruling party, it does not indicate that the economic issues are not important. It is possibly more a reflection of a confidence in the ruling party to find a solution to these challenges.

Second, economic factors seem to have greater salience when it comes to state elections than national elections.

Third, while people may list unemployment and price rise as their key concerns, when standing before the EVM (electronic voting machine) to decide who to vote for, a range of factors (besides the economic or trumping the economic) could well be playing out and end up being key to the decision that they take.

What could the opposition INDIA bloc have done differently to emerge as a powerful force?

The opposition alliance has been in “response” mode rather than “agenda setting mode.” Increasingly, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the BJP has been setting the agenda and the opposition has largely been responding to that agenda.

There are clearly three things that the alliance needed to have done. First, come together not just prior to the elections but at least a year earlier. Second, work out the logistics of seat-sharing well in advance, so that work could have begun at the ground. Third, come up with an alternative agenda and narrative to what the ruling BJP (and NDA) have projected.

The glue that holds the opposition alliance together is its opposition to the BJP. There was a need for not just this negative glue but something more positive in terms of a strategy, policy and program alternative. That does not seem visible.

While the BJP has been dominant nationally since the 2014 election, it has struggled in certain states and regions of the country. What explains the BJP’s difficulties in southern India, and are there any lessons the opposition can draw from these factors?

Since 2014, the voter in India is increasingly distinguishing between a national election and the election in their particular state. It is quite common to see one party being favored in the state elections and at a national election the verdict being different. Voters distinguish between issues handled at the state level and national level and make that distinction in their voting choice.

This was first seen in 1984-85 in Karnataka. In the November 1984 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress did very well in the state. Within a few months, when the State Assembly elections were held in March 1985, the Janata Party returned to power with a clear majority.

The BJP has found it difficult to penetrate the south beyond the state of Karnataka. In 2014, it did very well in north, west, and central India, winning more than 90 percent of the seats in this region. In 2019, it continued to do well in these three regions but also focused on east and northeast India. In 2019, the NDA won only 30 of the 130 seats in south India (a strike rate of 22 percent).

The only state where it has a presence is Karnataka, where it has done well in the recent past in national elections. Here too, in state elections the BJP has never secured a majority. The other state where it has registered a presence is Telangana, where this time around it is positioning itself as the key challenger to the Congress.

In the three other states of the south, the BJP has been weak. Tamil Nadu has traditionally seen a competition between two alliances led by state-based parties (DMK and AIADMK). This time around, the BJP hopes to lead a third front and over time become the nucleus of an anti DMK alliance.

In Kerala, there has been a traditional contest between the Congress-led UDF and the Communist party-led LDF. This has left very little space for the BJP. The BJP hopes to make a dent and emerge as a third player and over time emerge as a key player to challenge the domination of the UDF and LDF.

In Andhra Pradesh the competition is between two state-based parties. The BJP has, for this election, joined the alliance led by one of the state-based parties (TDP) as the third player and hopes to gain a few seats in the state. The BJP realizes that for a true pan-India identity, having a strong foothold in the South is crucial.  

Advocacy groups have raised persistent concerns about the health of India's democracy, claiming free speech and media freedom are increasingly restricted. How would you evaluate the state of India's democracy as the country gears up for general elections?

Two trends are visible. First, is India becoming an “election-only democracy”? The major manifestation of democracy appears to be elections. Given the different cycle of elections at the national and state level, every few months there is an election somewhere or other in India. It has become like the festivals of India – when one is over, another is round the corner. Have the other facets of democracy become weakened or not received the prominence that elections have secured?

Second, the capacity of the party that comes to power to exercise considerable influence over the media and other critical state institutions has been a visible trend. It appears to have become a little more pronounced now.