Indian Foreign Policy Under Narendra Modi: A Decade of Transformation

On June 8, 2024, Narendra Modi etched his name in the annals of Indian history, surpassing all previous non-Congress prime ministers to become the longest-serving leader in this category. This feat stands as a testament to his grip on the Indian political landscape and his commanding influence over the nation's domestic affairs.

However, as Modi assumes the role of India’s figurehead for the next five years, the future trajectory of India’s foreign policy demands a thorough and multifaceted examination that goes beyond the veneer of his political longevity.

Modi’s victory also demands a careful analysis of how his domestic politics, rhetoric, and success have affected – and will affect – his foreign policy and India’s standing on the world stage.

Provincial to Premier

For one, Modi’s accomplishment of winning a third term – and, immediately after that, being invited to the G-7 summit as an observer – is a testament to his journey from a once-dismissed “provincial leader” and “regional satrap” to a statesman with a commanding presence on the international stage.

A decade ago, few could have predicted that the man whose brand of Hindutva politics and strongman image drew scorn from domestic opponents, Western governments, and global political pundits would one day be hailed as a premier statesman. The 2002 Gujarat riots, which occurred under Modi’s watch as chief minister, led to significant international isolation, with the United States and other Western nations denying him a visa. However, Modi’s resounding victory in the 2014 general elections compelled a swift reversal in U.S. policy, as Washington pragmatically engaged with India's new leader.

Fast forward to the present, and the very countries and leaders who once criticized Modi during his Gujarat days now acknowledge his indispensable role in navigating complex global issues. Ironically, it was Modi’s tenure as chief minister of Gujarat from 2001 to 2014, marked by his strongman image, that laid the groundwork for his ascent, placing him in the company of assertive leaders like Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Xi Jinping, Sheikh Hasina, Vladimir Putin, and Mohammed bin Salman.

With India’s rapidly sinking position in democracy, press, religious freedom, and other similar indices, it is only right that Modi is seen as one in the pantheon of illiberal leaders in stark contrast to the liberal democracies of the West. And this despite India never losing an opportunity to call itself “the world’s largest democracy.”

Modi’s hallmark approach, which prioritizes economic development, infrastructure projects, and foreign investment over social justice and inclusivity, can be traced back to his time in Gujarat. In the face of the backlash over the 2002 riots, Modi focused on initiatives like the “Vibrant Gujarat” summits, a strategy that remains central to his political playbook as prime minister.

Under Modi’s leadership, India has embarked on a robust economic diplomacy campaign, signing a record number of bilateral agreements and aggressively promoting domestic programs like “Make in India” and “Digital India” on the global stage to attract foreign investment. While Modi’s frequent foreign visits and speeches initially drew ridicule, especially during his early tenure, when the late BJP veteran Sushma Swaraj served as foreign minister, his persistent engagement with world leaders has been instrumental in rebranding his international image.

In his United Nations General Assembly addresses, Modi has skillfully emphasized India’s cultural heritage, economic potential, and strategic importance, projecting the nation as a responsible global actor. Unlike his predecessors, Modi has also actively engaged with the Indian diaspora, recognizing their role as ambassadors of India’s interests abroad. His speeches to large Indian communities in the United States, United Kingdom, and Australia have deftly blended cultural pride with calls for greater economic and political collaboration.

The second important aspect of Modi’s image is that of going beyond soft power promotion in line with this strongman image.

Modi’s foreign policy approach has been markedly assertive. He has taken decisive stances on critical issues, from surgical strikes against Pakistan in 2016 to diplomatic offensives against China following border clashes. This assertiveness has redefined India's image from a traditionally non-aligned nation to a more proactive global player.

Modi’s revival of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) with the United States, Japan, and Australia, aimed at ensuring a free and open Indo-Pacific, represents a clear strategic counter to China’s growing regional influence and underscores India’s willingness to play a pivotal role in regional security as a Western ally.

Through his deft foreign policy maneuvers and personal diplomacy, Narendra Modi has successfully transitioned from a provincial leader to a global statesman, reshaping India’s international engagement and cementing its position on the world stage. His remarkable evolution serves as a compelling case study of political evolution and adaptability in the face of domestic and international challenges.

The Rise of India as a Mediator

The eruption of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 marked the first instance of India possibly becoming a new face in global conflict mediation – a role traditionally played by Western European nations.

India has steadfastly called for the warring parties to work for a peaceful resolution through dialogue and diplomacy. It has stuck to this stance while showing remarkable resilience to Western pressure.

Despite the harsh criticism, press and social media pressure, and even direct lobbying from its closest Western ally, the United States, India refused to condemn Russia’s invasion outright. On the other hand, India sent clear signals to Russia by emphasizing the importance of respecting all nations’ sovereignty and territorial integrity while advocating for a cessation of hostilities and a return to the negotiating table.

This approach was particularly evident during the G-20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, in November 2022, where Modi played a crucial role in facilitating discussions between Russia and the West. Modi’s personal rapport with both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Western leaders allowed him to bridge the divide and encourage a more constructive dialogue.

Furthermore, India’s handling of the Russian oil imports issue has showcased its diplomatic acumen and ability to balance competing interests.

On the one hand, despite pressure from the United States and other Western nations to reduce its reliance on Russian energy imports, India has continued to purchase discounted Russian crude oil, arguing that its primary responsibility is to ensure the energy security of its 1.4 billion citizens. On the other hand, India sold the same oil to NATO countries and helped them satiate their energy needs without breaking the sanctions they had placed on Russia.

India has made certain the West realizes two things: one, new realities don’t obliterate old ones. As close as India has gotten to the West and the Quad, India has no intention to abandon Russia, its oldest and most steadfast international ally.

Two, India is ready to go beyond passive non-alignment to active neutrality. Modi isn’t going to shy away from using India’s growing economic and geopolitical clout, which has also contributed to its emergence as a key mediator.

As the world’s fifth-largest economy and a rising global power, India’s influence on the international stage has been steadily increasing. Its strategic partnerships with both Russia and the United States, as well as its membership in key multilateral forums such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) grouping, have positioned it as a vital link between the East and the West.

India’s emergence as a mediator in the Russia-Ukraine conflict has also inspired a new narrative in global politics that challenges the traditional Western-centric approach to conflict resolution. It has demonstrated that developing nations with a strong commitment to multilateralism and a pragmatic approach to international relations can play a vital role in promoting peace and stability.

Responding to questions raised in the Indian Parliament soon after the full scale invasion of Ukrainian territories by Russia had begun in February 2022, Modi had conversations with both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy individually, urging both to chose negotiation over confrontation.

India’s minister of external affairs, Dr. S Jaishankar, stated on the record that, “Prime Minister [Modi] spoke with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine on 26 February and, again on 07 March. In these conversations, Prime Minister expressed deep concern about the ongoing conflict and resultant humanitarian crisis. Prime Minister reiterated his call for immediate cessation of violence and noted that India has always stood for peaceful resolution of issues and direct dialogue between the two parties.”

While India refused to join any direct involvement in military affairs, New Delhi sent 15 consignments of humanitarian assistance weighing about 117 metric tons to Ukraine and sent financial aid to rebuild the Kyiv Gymnasium of Oriental Language No. 1, which had been destroyed by the Russian assault.

Most recently, Modi met Zelenskyy in person on the sidelines of the G-7 summit on June 14, 2024, replicating a similar meeting at the 2023 G-7 gathering. In a post on X (formerly Twitter) afterward, Modi called his meeting with Zelenskyy “very productive,” saying “India is eager to further cement bilateral relations with Ukraine.”

On the other hand, Jaishankar’s submissions to the Parliament say that Modi “...also spoke with Vladimir Putin, President of the Russian Federation on 24 February, 02 March, and 07 March.” Later, in September 2022, Modi met with Putin in person on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Uzbekistan.

Soon after the onset of the invasion, upon being briefed on the status of negotiations between the Ukrainian and Russian sides, Modi proposed that “...a direct conversation between President Putin and President Zelenskyy may greatly assist the ongoing peace efforts.” He continues to advocate for “dialogue and diplomacy,” telling Zelenskyy that is “the way to peace.”

As the world becomes increasingly multipolar, India’s rise as a mediator and Modi as the face of that mediation is likely to have far-reaching implications for global governance and conflict resolution. Its success in facilitating dialogue and finding common ground between opposing parties has set a new precedent for diplomatic engagement and has opened up new possibilities for a more inclusive and representative international order.

Unchanged Independence, Changed Rhetoric

India has a strong history in the non-aligned movement during the Cold War and had a clear stance on anti-colonial freedom movements before that. India’s demand for the United Nations, particularly the U.N. Security Council, to become more representative and include countries of the Global South isn’t new, either. So Modi’s pursuit of an independent, India-first approach to policy isn’t novel or a shift per se.

However, the strongest shift in India’s foreign policy under Modi is the marked departure from the country’s traditional approach to international relations as being distinct from domestic politics. The once clear lines between domestic politics and foreign policy have become increasingly blurred as the Modi government actively leverages diplomatic achievements to bolster its political standing at home.

The BJP’s IT Cell has played a pivotal role in bridging the gap between foreign and domestic policy, harnessing the power of social media to shape public opinion on international issues. From trending hashtags like #BoycottMaldives in response to Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu clearly favoring ties with China over India to trending clips of Jaishankar’s public utterances criticizing “Western hypocrisy,” the BJP has effectively mobilized public sentiment in support of the government's foreign policy decisions.

Not only have Modi and Jaishankar demonstrated an unabashed appetite to turn global talking points into fodder for domestic consumption, but they have nearly written this “hitting back” into India’s communication and propaganda policies.

The recent exposé by the Washington Post, revealing the Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW)’s efforts to counter Western criticism through a network of analysts and writers, underscores the government’s proactive approach to shaping the international narrative.

Moreover, India is no longer content with being the subject of criticism; instead, it is actively challenging Western perspectives and asserting its own voice on the global stage. This was exemplified by Jaishankar’s strong response to the U.S. State Department’s 2021 report on religious freedom, which he termed as “vote bank politics in international relations.”

The Modi government’s assertive foreign policy stance has been further highlighted by its response to recent events. The crackdown on protests, such as the 2020 Jawaharlal Nehru University protests against fee hikes and the 2021 farmers’ protests, drew international criticism, but the government remained steadfast in its position.

The Indian Ministry of External Affairs’ announcement of a new democracy index aimed at countering Western indices that often rank India poorly showcases the government’s determination to challenge established narratives.

The highlight of this projection of international strength through media, however, is the flaunting of an assassination program targeting anti-Indian extremist voices sheltering in the United States and Canada. While the charges leveled by the U.S. and Canada saw routine and banal denials from the establishment’s mandarins, IT Cell-led social media unabashedly flaunted the allegations as victory stripes.

Beyond media posturing, in terms of real geopolitical alignments, Modi’s government has marked a subtle but significant shift from the overtly pro-U.S. policy of his predecessor, Manmohan Singh, to a more balanced approach that includes a renewed emphasis on ties with Russia.

Despite India’s continued strategic partnership with the United States, driven by shared concerns over China’s growing assertiveness, Modi’s government has shown a willingness to challenge Washington when necessary. Despite pressure from the United States and other Western nations, India’s continued oil imports from Russia during the ongoing Ukraine conflict underscore this new dynamic in Indo-U.S. relations. Moreover, India’s decision to abstain from voting on U.N. resolutions condemning Russia’s actions in Ukraine has highlighted its commitment to maintaining strategic autonomy in foreign policy.

However, Modi’s government has faced criticism for its perceived soft stance on China, particularly in light of the ongoing border disputes between the two countries. Despite Modi’s earlier promises to take a tough line against Chinese aggression, the opposition has accused his government of failing to adequately counter China’s military actions along the disputed border.

The June 2020 Galwan Valley clash, which resulted in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers and an unknown number of Chinese troops, exposed the limitations of India’s military capabilities and the challenges of directly confronting China. The subsequent statements by Jaishankar and his deputy, Meenakshi Lekhi, acknowledging India’s limitations in directly confronting China, have further fueled this criticism, with the opposition accusing the government of weakening India’s position vis-à-vis its powerful neighbor.

What remains a high point for Modi, though, is that despite these challenges, his government has made significant strides in expanding India’s global footprint and enhancing its strategic partnerships.

The strengthening of the Quad with the United States, Japan, and Australia has been a key foreign policy achievement aimed at countering China’s growing influence in the Indo-Pacific region. The first-ever Quad Leaders’ Summit, held virtually in March 2021, underscored the growing importance of this grouping and India’s central role in shaping the regional security architecture.

India has also actively engaged with other regional and multilateral forums, such as the SCO and the BRICS grouping, to advance its strategic interests and shape the global discourse on issues ranging from terrorism to climate change. The Modi government’s successful hosting of the 2021 BRICS Summit, which brought together the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, demonstrated India’s growing diplomatic clout and its ability to navigate complex geopolitical dynamics.

India’s humanitarian assistance and disaster relief efforts, as seen in its response to the COVID-19 pandemic, have further bolstered its image as a responsible global power. The supply of vaccines and medical equipment to countries in need, under the “Vaccine Maitri” initiative, has earned India goodwill and strengthened its soft power in the international community.

While all of the aforementioned successes have been widely reported in the Indian media — especially the pro-government ones – the less than shiny bits of news find little place.

For example, India had to host the 2023 SCO Summit virtually on account of flaring tensions with fellow members China and Pakistan. The awkward and difficult geopolitical dynamics remained far less reported than the purported successes of the SCO Summit itself.

Hindutva as Hurdle

On the flip side, this blurring of lines between external and internal propaganda and posturing has had a detrimental effect on India’s standing in its neighborhood. The rise of Hindu nationalist rhetoric and the Modi government’s emphasis on promoting Hindu culture has raised concerns among India’s neighbors, particularly those with majority Muslim populations.

In the Maldives, the run-up to the 2018 presidential election that brought Ibrahim Mohamed Solih to power saw Maldivian Muslim groups attacking and criticizing Modi’s relentless promotion of yoga as an attempt to inject Hindu culture into the island nation. The Maldives, a Muslim-majority country, has been wary of India’s growing influence and has sought to maintain its Islamic identity. The perception of India as a Hindu-centric state has further complicated bilateral relations, with the Maldives increasingly turning toward China for economic and strategic cooperation.

The recent election of Muizzu, who went to the polls on a shrill and uncompromising anti-India, pro-China plank, is further evidence of the Hindutva hurdle in India’s neighborhood policy.

Nepal, another key neighbor, has taken serious umbrage to the inclusion of disputed territories in the new “Akhand Bharat” map displayed in the Indian parliament building. The map, which depicts a unified India encompassing Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Tibet, and parts of Nepal, has been seen as an affront to Nepal’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

The border disputes between India and Nepal, particularly in the Kalapani region, have further strained bilateral relations, with Nepal accusing India of encroaching upon its territory. The Modi government’s assertive stance on the border issue and its refusal to engage in constructive dialogue have led to a growing anti-India sentiment in Nepal, with calls for a more balanced and independent foreign policy.

In May 2020, Nepal’s Parliament approved a new political map that includes the disputed territories of Kalapani, Lipulekh, and Limpiyadhura, further escalating tensions with India.

Bangladesh has also seen an increasingly restive polity in recent years. Despite the leadership of Sheikh Hasina, who has been a staunch supporter of India, the rise of Hindu nationalist rhetoric and the controversial Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) have raised concerns in Bangladesh about discrimination against Muslims in India and the potential influx of undocumented Muslim migrants into the country.

The CAA, which fast-tracks citizenship for non-Muslim refugees from neighboring countries into India, has been seen as a violation of the spirit of secularism and has led to widespread protests in Bangladesh. The growing anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh has also been fueled by the Modi government’s perceived interference in the country’s domestic politics and its support for the ruling Awami League party. In March 2021, violent protests erupted in Bangladesh over Modi’s visit to the country, with demonstrators accusing him of stoking communal tensions and promoting Hindu nationalism.

Propaganda as Policy

Modi’s use of Hindutva as dual-purpose propaganda content and the IT Cell as an all-purpose propaganda weapon has, perhaps unwittingly, spawned a dangerous feedback loop where propaganda has become policy.

In light of the mixed success of the anti-Khalistan assassination program and the arrest of R&AW assets in Europe, the NATO and Five Eyes intelligence alliances have recently sent clear signals to India about its place in the global pecking order. This has exposed the limits of India’s strategic ambitions and its attempts to project itself as a global superpower.

In other words, this has come as a rude awakening for Modi-led India, which has been consuming – and become consumed by – its own propaganda and delusions of grandeur.

The Five Eyes, in particular, have been reluctant to share sensitive intelligence with India, citing concerns over the country’s close ties with Russia and its handling of classified information. This comes as a humiliating rebuke for India’s strategic establishment, which has long sought to position the country as a key partner of the West in the Indo-Pacific region.

The fact that the Five Eyes, which includes some of India’s closest strategic partners such as the United States and Australia, are unwilling to fully trust New Delhi with sensitive intelligence has laid bare the hollowness of India’s claims to be a responsible and reliable global player. It has also exposed the limitations of India’s attempts to balance its relations with Russia and the West, a strategy that has come under increasing strain in recent years.

Moreover, India’s exclusion from key strategic dialogues and initiatives led by the NATO and Five Eyes countries has also highlighted the country’s marginal role in shaping the global security architecture.

Despite Modi and Jaishankar’s much-vaunted “strategic autonomy” and aspirations to be a “leading power,” India has been shown its place by the very groupings it takes part in, including BRICS.

While the much-publicized rupee-ruble trade between India and Russia collapsed quickly, Russia has continued expanding its ruble-yuan exchanges. Similarly, in the rupee-riyal energy trade with Iran, only 45 percent of the transactions are actually settled using these currencies. Fifty-five percent, or more than half the amount, is actually settled in euros.

Among other factors, India has very little to export to these non-Western nation-states. Moreover, India’s proximity to the West and near-absolute reliance on SWIFT make its banks incapable of circumventing the sanctions against Iran and Russia.

China, on the other hand, has been able to navigate these challenges with greater success despite facing its own set of constraints and limitations. China’s growing economic and military power has made it an indispensable player in the global system, forcing even its most ardent critics to engage with it on a range of issues.

China’s strategic partnerships with countries such as Russia and Iran have given it a degree of leverage and autonomy that India can only dream of. China’s ability to balance its relations with multiple powers and shape the global agenda on climate change and global governance has made it a formidable challenger to the Western-led order.

However, China’s assertiveness and its attempts to reshape the global order in its own image have also sparked a growing backlash from the West and its allies. The NATO and Five Eyes countries have increasingly seen China as a strategic rival and have sought to counter its influence through a range of measures, including economic sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and military posturing.

But even as China faces these challenges, it has been able to maintain a degree of strategic clarity and consistency that India has sorely lacked. China’s propaganda machine may be just as relentless as India’s, but it is backed up by a formidable economic and military apparatus that commands respect and fear in equal measure.

In contrast, India’s propaganda has been exposed as a hollow sham, a self-serving narrative that has little basis in reality. India's claims to be a “Vishwaguru” (world teacher) and a “jagat janani” (mother of the world) have been met with derision and scorn by the international community, which sees through the country’s grandiose rhetoric and recognizes its many weaknesses and contradictions.

The Modi government’s use of propaganda as a tool of foreign policy has not only failed to enhance India’s global standing but has actually undermined it. By peddling a vision of India that is at odds with reality, the government has created a credibility gap that will be difficult to bridge in the years ahead.

The Path Ahead

As Narendra Modi embarks on his third term as prime minister of India, the challenges and opportunities in the realm of foreign policy are more pronounced than ever. Despite the mixed results of his previous strategies, there is a clear path forward that can help India enhance its global standing and address the complexities of the international arena more effectively.

First and foremost, Modi’s government needs to prioritize pragmatism over propaganda. The blurring of lines between domestic political narratives and foreign policy has led to significant credibility issues. India should adopt a more realistic and transparent approach to international relations. This means acknowledging its limitations and working cooperatively with both Western and Eastern blocs without overreliance on grandiose rhetoric.

India’s strategic autonomy should be reflected in its active participation in multilateral forums. Strengthening ties within groups like the G-20, BRICS, and the SCO can provide India with a platform to influence global governance. Additionally, India should continue mediating in international conflicts, leveraging its unique position as a bridge between the East and the West.

While maintaining its historical ties with Russia, India’s foreign policy should also focus on deepening partnerships with other key players like the United States, European Union, Japan, and Australia. These relationships, particularly within frameworks like the Quad, can help counterbalance China’s growing influence. However, this should be done without alienating other important partners or compromising India’s strategic autonomy.

India’s neighborhood policy requires a sensitive and balanced approach. The rise of Hindutva rhetoric has strained relationships with neighboring countries like Nepal, Bangladesh, and the Maldives. To mitigate these tensions, Modi’s government should focus on building trust through economic cooperation and cultural exchanges and address legitimate concerns about sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Economic strength is the bedrock of any successful foreign policy. Modi’s government should focus on enhancing India’s economic diplomacy by fostering trade relationships, attracting foreign investment, and participating in global supply chains. Initiatives like “Make in India” and “Digital India” should be integrated into the broader foreign policy framework to create mutually beneficial economic ties.

The recent setbacks in intelligence sharing with the NATO and Five Eyes alliances highlight the need for India to improve its intelligence and security cooperation. Building trust with these alliances will require stringent measures to protect classified information and a more transparent approach to India’s strategic objectives. Strengthening domestic intelligence capabilities and fostering better coordination with international partners can help India become a more reliable security partner.

India’s rich cultural heritage, democratic values, and contributions to global issues like climate change and public health provide a solid foundation for soft power diplomacy. However, while it is crucial to highlight these strengths, the narrative should avoid infantilizing India's image on the global stage.

Additionally, Modi must resist the temptation to position himself as the omnipresent mascot of every initiative and refrain from hyperbolic claims about his superhuman capabilities. Such portrayals risk undermining India’s credibility and invite ridicule rather than respect.

Instead, India’s soft power should be promoted through measured and dignified cultural exchanges, educational collaborations, and humanitarian efforts that reflect the nation's genuine strengths and aspirations.

Lastly, a coherent and effective foreign policy requires internal political cohesion and stability. With his mandate significantly reduced in 2024, Modi needs to address domestic issues such as religious polarization, economic inequality, and social justice. Doing so will be crucial in providing a more stable domestic foundation for his international engagements.

By contrast, letting these issues fester will directly undermine the moral high ground he and his government have been seeking on the world stage.