Small Signs of an India-Pakistan Thaw Emerge at Islamabad SCO Summit

The recent Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Heads of Government Summit hosted by Pakistan on October 15-16 held significant stakes for Islamabad.

For policymakers in Pakistan, this summit was more than just a diplomatic gathering. It was an opportunity to showcase the country’s capability to organize major international events despite ongoing political tensions and security challenges. The summit served as a platform for Pakistan to renew its position as a regional player that should not be underestimated by its neighbors, particularly India.

In the lead-up to the summit, Islamabad experienced unrest as supporters of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party marched on the capital demanding the release of their leader, former Prime Minister Imran Khan, from prison. However, the government was able to restore order and transform Islamabad into a secure environment that belied any signs of the recent demonstrations. This meticulous preparation highlighted Pakistan's commitment to presenting itself as a stable host for high-profile events.

The summit commenced with the notable visit of Chinese Premier Li Qiang, who arrived early to engage with the Pakistani leadership on critical bilateral issues such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and security cooperation. The Pakistani government went above and beyond to emphasize its special relationship with Beijing. It effectively shut down parts of the capital in anticipation of Li’s arrival and even opened the gates of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif’s home for his stay.

Furthermore, the arrival of a significant Russian delegation led by Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin at the SCO summit in Islamabad underscored the deepening ties between Russia and Pakistan. This visit marked a pivotal moment in their diplomatic relationship, especially given the flurry of interactions that have taken place between the two nations in recent months.

In stark contrast to this growing affinity with China and Russia, the Indian delegation’s presence at the summit was notably marked by tension. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar led India's participation but was met by a lower-level Pakistani official at the airport, reflecting the strained ties between India and Pakistan. This gesture seemed intended to reassure domestic audiences within Pakistan that there is no inclination toward mending relations with India.

However, beneath this surface-level tension lies a more complex dynamic.

Despite official protocols indicating animosity, there were signs of engagement during the summit. Pakistani officials engaged with their Indian counterparts and high-profile journalists from India, suggesting that opportunities for dialogue may be emerging from this gathering. Notably, former Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif hosted Indian journalists at his residence for discussions on cricket and other topics – an indication of an openness to cultural diplomacy.

Moreover, reports indicate that Jaishankar had cordial interactions with Pakistani officials while in Islamabad. His visit marked the first Indian ministerial trip to Pakistan since 2015, a significant step that would likely not have occurred if New Delhi expected hostility.

Interestingly, both nations refrained from direct criticisms or bringing bilateral issues into sharp focus during their public engagements at the summit.

However, Jaishankar did articulate concerns regarding the trust deficit impacting cooperation between India and Pakistan: “If trust is lacking or cooperation inadequate, if the friendship has fallen short and good neighborliness is missing somewhere, there are surely reasons to introspect and causes to address,” he said. This statement serves as a veiled acknowledgment of ongoing challenges while also hinting at a potential pathway toward renewed dialogue if both sides are willing to engage constructively moving forward.

As the chair of the SCO summit meeting, Pakistan tried to seize a pivotal opportunity to advocate for enhanced regional connectivity, emphasizing its critical role in addressing pressing challenges such as terrorism, climate change, and economic instability. During the summit, Sharif highlighted the necessity of cooperation among member states to tackle these issues effectively. He articulated Pakistan’s recent counterterrorism initiatives that require regional collaboration, particularly in light of security concerns stemming from Afghanistan.

Sharif referred to the SCO platform as a “beacon of multilateralism,” expressing his firm belief in the collective potential and resolve of member states to create a more prosperous and secure future. His remarks underscored Pakistan's desire for solidarity among nations to confront shared threats and aspirations.

However, it is crucial to recognize that Pakistan’s outreach comes amid significant challenges. The country has faced obstacles in enhancing connectivity with Central Asia due to geopolitical tensions with Afghanistan following the Taliban’s takeover, and strained relations with neighboring India and Iran. The summit served as a litmus test for whether Pakistan could garner genuine support from regional partners for its counterterrorism efforts and economic stability.

While tangible developments regarding regional cooperation may remain uncertain following this event, it is clear that Pakistan aimed to assert itself on the geopolitical stage during the two-day summit – demonstrating resilience amid adversity while reinforcing its strategic alliances in an evolving landscape.

Only time will reveal if this summit will translate into meaningful alliances or if it will merely be remembered as a momentary gathering without lasting impact on Pakistan’s strategic objectives.