Central Asia’s Water Crisis Is Already Here

Over the course of 2023, Central Asia grappled with escalating challenges stemming from climate change, including disruptive weather patterns affecting long-standing agricultural practices and the melting of key glaciers impacting water resources. It was a particularly challenging year for the region. 

For instance, in mid-summer 2023, Turkmenistan turned off fountains in the capital, citing a lack of water. In other parts of the country, locals consistently struggle with unsustainable fresh water supplies, live without fresh water for weeks, and are forced to buy water with their dwindling financial resources. 

In June 2023, Kazakhstan declared a state of emergency in Aktau as Caspian Sea water levels dropped to a critically low level. When residents of Astana organized an impromptu rally in the city center in July, they chanted “Give us water!” 

Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan have not been spared either. Residents of Bishkek staged small-scale rallies in the summer and the city government banned car washes, swimming pools, and bathhouses. In Uzbekistan, fresh water prices doubled in some regions. 

The Central Asian water crisis, the product of climate change, inefficient water management, and growing water consumption, is not just a hypothetical problem anymore – it is affecting all parts of the region, and it is happening now. The past year underscored a pressing need for comprehensive and sustainable climate action, prompting an exploration of adaptive strategies and the fostering of collaborative efforts to mitigate far-reaching consequences on both ecosystems and local communities.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports Central Asia to be highly vulnerable to climate change given that the temperature in the region is rising faster than the global average. Between 1990 and 2020, the average annual temperature in some areas of Central Asia was at least 5 degrees Celsius warmer than it had been from 1960 to 1979, with summers becoming drier and winters characterized by more rain. Projected climate models consistently indicate a warming trend, with average annual temperatures predicted to increase by 3-5 degrees C by 2080. 

As temperatures rise, livestock health is affected by heat stress, metabolic disorders, oxidative stress, and immune suppression, resulting in increased disease and mortality. For instance, in 2021, widespread droughts caused massive losses in livestock in western Kazakhstan, leading to at least 500 dead cattle in one village alone. Scientists predict that it will not be long until climate change leads to a further decrease in food availability across the entire region.

The agricultural sector makes significant contributions to Central Asian economies: 5.2 percent of GDP in Kazakhstan; 7.5 percent in Turkmenistan; 18.5 percent in Uzbekistan; 20.8 percent in Kyrgyzstan; and 23.3 percent in Tajikistan. In light of this, recent crop failures, caused by a heatwave and drought, will inevitably affect the region’s economies and its potential for growth and development. 

A further climate-related strain on Central Asian economies is migration. A 2021 report from the World Bank estimated that the region could see as many as 5 million internal climate migrants by 2050. 

Climate Change Vulnerabilities 

Agriculture and climate change are inextricably linked. Climate change has led to rising temperatures, heatwaves, shrinking glaciers, increasing aridity, and droughts in Central Asia, and in turn has caused crop failures. During the summer of 2022, for example, Tajikistan experienced temperatures ranging from approximately 33 to 43 degrees C. In contrast, in 2020, the average temperature stood at 25 degrees C. 

The Kazakh government announced a weather alert in 11 regions of the country after the temperature reached 45 degrees C in the summer of 2022. Some locals resorted to the tradition of tasattyk, a ceremonial prayer where they seek rain through sacrificial offerings. 

The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) reports that, due to increasing temperatures and frequently changing rainfall patterns, agricultural pests and diseases, such as locusts and wheat blast, will likely increase. For instance, as the summer of 2023 began Afghanistan struggled with a plague of locusts that threatened to destroy 1.2 million tons of wheat. In April 2023, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan conducted transborder locust-control training and study events. And in July 2023, Turkmenistan’s Mary province harvested half the wheat grain expected due to a new type of weed that is resistant to herbicides. 

As nations like Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan join forces to combat these threats through efforts such as transborder locust-control initiatives, it’s evident that collaborative adaptive management (CAM) strategies are essential to safeguarding the whole region’s agricultural landscape. The urgency lies not only in understanding climate-induced disruptions but also in implementing innovative solutions that can protect crops, preserve vital resources, and ensure a climate resilient future for Central Asian agriculture.

The agricultural sector, however, is not just a victim of climate change but a contributor itself. In Central Asia, agricultural activities rank as the second-largest contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, making up 27 percent of the region’s total GHG emissions. 

One of the primary reasons for this considerable contribution is the release of nitrous oxide and methane from agricultural practices. Nitrous oxide is emitted from agricultural soils due to the use of fertilizers, which contain nitrogen-based compounds. These fertilizers are essential for increasing crop yields and ensuring food security, but their application releases nitrous oxide, a potent greenhouse gas with a 300 times more global warming potential than carbon dioxide. 

Similarly, methane emissions are a consequence of livestock farming practices, such as enteric fermentation, where methane is produced in the digestive processes of ruminant animals like cows and sheep. 

Navigating the Interplay of Water Resources and Agriculture Amid Climate Change Challenges 

The region’s heavy dependence on water resources for agriculture has led to a significant challenge in water management as well. Approximately 90 percent of the available surface water in Central Asia is allocated for agricultural purposes, making it a critical resource for the region’s food production and economic livelihood. However, this allocation of water comes with notable inefficiencies that contribute to wastage and sustainability concerns.

In an interview with The Diplomat, Dr. Alisher Mirzabaev, a senior scientist at the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI), pointed to the problem of marginal water in the region, especially in upstream Tajikistan, where the issue of excessive irrigation has created a complex water management challenge. 

A primary issue lies in the inadequate state of the irrigation infrastructure. Leaky pipes, poorly maintained canals, and outdated irrigation systems result in substantial water losses before it even reaches the intended farmlands. These leaks not only lead to a direct loss of water but also contribute to soil erosion and waterlogging in the surrounding areas, with scientists pointing to increased risks of water-related soil erosion as global warming progresses. 

While some of the water is later recovered through groundwater sources, this recovery process exacerbates another problem: the high salinity of the land due to inadequate drainage. As water infiltrates the soil, it washes away accumulated salt, resulting in the retrieval of water that is of poor quality – saline and marginal. When this saline water eventually flows downstream, it compounds the issue of land degradation, further highlighting the interconnected nature of water management and land sustainability in the entire region. 

It is, therefore, paramount to recognize that crop systems transformation and integrated water resources management are important routes to net-zero emissions and sustainable food security in the region. 

The evaporation and evapotranspiration losses that occur due to unlined open-air canals pose another set of challenges in Central Asia. Since canals across the region are predominantly unlined and open-air, water evaporates into the atmosphere, diminishing the amount available for crops. For instance, it is estimated that in Uzbekistan, an average of 14 billion cubic meters, equivalent to 36 percent of water, is lost annually in natural surface irrigation systems. To address this issue, Uzbekistan's President Shavkat Mirziyoyev declared that 2024 will be a “shock year for the concrete lining of canals” in the water sector.

The current and projected water shortages, coupled with increased temperatures, have significantly contributed to aridification and desertification, soil erosion, and loss of vegetation and biodiversity in Central Asia. In 2018, national geospatial reporting on the status of land degradation revealed that 36.7 percent of the territory in the region was degraded. 

“Land degradation and desertification in Central Asia has, unfortunately, one of the highest rates globally. Land degradation and desertification also result in more frequent and intense cases of sand and dust storms (SDS), another transboundary phenomenon in the region,” warned Dr. Jamal Annagylyjova, an ecosystem restoration officer at the Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Canada, in correspondence with The Diplomat. 

As a result of these factors, Central Asian countries are experiencing increased droughts and dust storms. “In the region where drought and desertification cause annual losses of about $6 billion, the number of people who migrate each year in search of work amounts to 2.5–4.3 million, or 10-15 percent of the economically active population,” a new report by the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification found. 

“Low productivity of agricultural lands combined with the informal economy leads to reduced employment opportunities in particular among the rural youth,” said Annagylyjova. “These processes, among other economic factors, increase migration to the larger cities and could increase social tension.”

The Path Forward 

Climate-smart agriculture presents one avenue by which Central Asian states can sustainably adapt to a changing climate. 

If interventions in Central Asia's agricultural sector are narrowly defined without taking into account the broader social, economic and environmental context, the potential for cross-scale and inter-sectoral synergies may be lost. To build resilience in the face of climate change, it is imperative to adopt a systemic and integrated approach that transcends traditional boundaries. This involves forging strategic partnerships across sectors and between countries to promote climate-smart agriculture, efficient water management, and robust climate adaptation practices.

Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Central Asian countries have grappled with regionalism, especially at the higher political level. There is a general consensus that Central Asian states should prioritize regional cooperation and multilateral partnerships with national and international organizations to tackle the impacts of climate change on agriculture and implement regional strategies. However, there is often a lack of clarity on how to effectively accomplish this goal. 

“If you combine all these [regional action] plans and see the joint future of Central Asia, [it is likely] we will not have enough resources to fulfill all the promises of these plans,” Dinara Ziganshina, director of the Scientific-Information Center of the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination of Central Asia (SIC ICWC), told The Diplomat. “So, we have to be more realistic and see what we can get together and how we can use capacity in different countries. So, I would encourage countries to start working on a synergetic level.” 

Similarly, Annagylyjova noted that “collaboration and coordination among the countries of the region at the high political level is a key prerequisite for any mitigation or adaptation strategy. As land degradation, desertification, and drought have both immediate or delayed spillover effects in terms of social and economic security, no country in the region would feel safe when a neighbor is in trouble.”

Considering this context, climate-smart agriculture, in particular, offers a promising avenue for addressing the region's food security and water management needs, while ensuring broader cooperation. For instance, to combat the effects of desertification, land degradation, and dust storms, Mirzabaev suggested introducing mulberry trees in the southern regions of Central Asia. 

According to Mirzabaev, collaboration of states in the agricultural realm is not only an avenue for knowledge transfer, but is also a trading opportunity. 

Already, we see promising signs of this collaboration in action. For instance, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have initiated trade partnerships in essential commodities such as flour, wheat products, vegetables, and fruits, among others. This trade not only bolsters food security but also establishes economic interdependence, contributing to regional stability and growth.

By going further and integrating climate-resilient crop varieties, efficient irrigation methods, and sustainable land management techniques, Central Asian nations can not only enhance food security but also mitigate the impact of climate change on their agricultural systems. In this regard, limiting further soil degradation and restoring soil productivity through crop rotation, soil cover, manure addition, and sustainable grazing management could be one of the ways to collective food security in Central Asia. 

Collaborative efforts should also encompass water management strategies that optimize the use of shared water resources while safeguarding against potential scarcity and contamination. Usually, this includes adopting practices such as drip irrigation, irrigation scheduling, and cover crops to save water and reduce agricultural losses. Additionally, upgrading and modernizing water management infrastructure is another solution to prevent water waste and boost efficiency. 

Local farmers are central in adapting new technologies and practices in efforts of saving water. “Ordinary farmers do not feel the water crisis as long as they see that water is flowing in rivers and canals,” explained Mirsaid Uzakov, an expert on rural water supply and sanitation in Uzbekistan, in an interview with The Diplomat. “Those people, more than often, are not well-educated – they cannot grasp climate forecasts or act upon those forecasts. There is no incentive for farmers for better water consumption.” Hence, there should be government efforts to educate local farmers about climate information and build their capacity to adopt water-saving technologies and sustainable practices.

Considering the elevated capital costs associated with climate-adaptive innovative technologies, establishing co-financing mechanisms is crucial to effectively address the substantial annual infrastructure financing gap in the region. In this regard, addressing the water management challenges in agriculture, government regulation, particularly in the domain of water pricing, emerges as a critical necessity. 

The current pricing structure is insufficient to incentivize the widespread adoption of water-saving technologies by the private sector. According to Ludmilla Kiktenko, resource mobilization coordinator at Regional Environmental Center for Central Asia (CAREC), in Central Asia, in general, and in Tajikistan, in particular, there are clashes between the way the state manages its water and energy resources that leads to disruptions in the water-energy-food nexus. Inter-sectoral power imbalances result in the poorer water sector being somewhat neglected in favor of the more lucrative energy sector. This disparity poses challenges for effective negotiations, crucial for the overall success of agricultural endeavors, due to the intertwined nature of water, energy, and food sectors. 

This imbalance can, in part, be explained by the fact that there are almost no fees for water use in Central Asia; therefore the water ministries are highly dependent on the state budget and are not able to fund improvements of their own infrastructure. This power dynamic highlights the urgent need for government intervention in the form of regulatory measures to rectify inter-sectoral imbalances. To foster change, a combination of regulatory sticks and carrots is required. While regulation can set the stage for water conservation, providing incentives for implementing these technologies can be equally impactful.

Nonetheless, it is crucial to recognize that this transition will likely lead to increased food prices in the short term. As farmers grapple with the higher costs of adopting water-saving measures, consumers may bear some of these expenses. In the realm of regional development and cooperation, this situation underscores the urgent need for practical measures from policymakers to strike a delicate balance between ensuring sustainable water use and addressing immediate concerns about food affordability.

For instance, governments can consider implementing targeted subsidies or financial support programs to ease the burden on farmers transitioning to water-efficient practices. Collaborative efforts between neighboring countries could involve the sharing of successful water-saving technologies and practices to enhance overall agricultural efficiency. In addition, the establishment of regional task forces or councils focused on sustainable agriculture can facilitate knowledge exchange and collaborative problem-solving.

In crafting regulatory frameworks, policymakers should prioritize measures that directly incentivize the adoption of water-efficient technologies. This could include tax breaks for farmers investing in water-saving irrigation systems or streamlined approval processes for permits related to sustainable agricultural practices. Tangible, sector-specific policies will be essential in ensuring that the agricultural industry can adapt and thrive in the face of these challenges.

In conclusion, the imperative for fostering regional collaboration and mutual support underscores the need for the establishment of concrete platforms facilitating dialogue and resource-sharing. An exemplary approach involves joint investment initiatives, such as those in research and development focused on drought-resistant crop varieties specifically tailored to the region's climate, promising tangible and sustainable benefits for all involved stakeholders.